MHMarkets：October 18, 2023--Fundamental Reminder

TBD US President Joe Biden visits Israel.

TBD The U.S. House of Representatives elects a speaker.

10:00 CNY GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3) & CNY Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods YoY (SEP) & CNY Industrial Added Value Above Designated Size YoY (SEP)

22:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (OCT/13)& USD EIA Oklahoma Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change (OCT/13) & USD EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserves Change (OCT/13)

24:00 Fed Governor Waller speaks on the economic outlook.

The next day at 00:30 FOMC Member Williams Speaks.

02:00Release the Federal Reserve's Beige Book of economic conditions.

03:15 Fed's Harker speaks on labor challenges.

MHMarkets Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

While other economic data released Tuesday were mixed, the most important “scare number” far exceeded expectations, indicating that U.S. consumption remained hot and markets were betting that the odds of a December rate hike had briefly risen. Stronger-than-expected inflation and consumption data could complicate the Fed's problems. As a result, the dollar index rose before turning lower in late trading to close down 0.04% at 106.2.

Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield closing near 4.84%, again near a 16-year high; The yield on the two-year Treasury note closed near 5.21%, its highest level since 2006.

Spot gold was weighed down by higher dollar and Treasury yields, falling below the $1,920 mark before turning positive to settle up 0.16% at $1,923.23 an ounce. Spot silver settled up 0.83% at $22.8 an ounce.

Oil fluctuated as Aramco said it could boost production within weeks if needed and investors weighed the potential for wider conflict in the Middle East, with WTI crude falling as low as $85.58 a barrel before recovering to trade up 0.77% at $87.67. Brent crude fell as low as $88.85 a barrel before closing up 1.13% at $90.87.

The three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded after opening lower, with the Dow up slightly, the Nasdaq down 0.25% and the S&P 500 down slightly. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.9%, while Baidu dropped 4% and JD.com dropped 3.5%. Nvidia closed down 4.6%. Digital currency stocks extended gains, with MicroStrategy and Coinbase up by the 3% line.

Major European stock indexes were divided, with Germany's DAX30 closing up 0.07%, Britain's FTSE 100 up 0.61% and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.52%.

Market Focus

1. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues. Palestinians and Hamas say an Israeli air strike on a hospital in Gaza has killed more than 500 people. The Israeli army said the hospital attack was carried out by Jihad, which the group denied. Russia has demanded an emergency meeting of the Security Council on the matter. Jordan canceled multilateral meetings with Mr. Biden; It is said to be seeking $10 billion in U.S. aid. Hamas: Free all hostages if Israel stops attacks on Gaza Israel: Biden visit won't Delay Gaza ground offensive Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: Bombing in Gaza must stop immediately.

2. The first round of voting for speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives was inconclusive.

3. Coindesk: Binance US suspends all dollar withdrawals.

4. The Biden administration plans to block NVIDIA and others from exporting high-performance AI chips, according to Yicai.

5. The Suez Canal will raise transit fees by 5% to 15% starting Jan. 15.

6. Us retail sales posted a monthly rate of 0.7% in September, beating expectations of 0.3% and revised up to 0.8% from 0.6%.

7. The yen jumped 100 points in the short term on the news that the Bank of Japan is said to be considering raising its inflation forecast for FY2023 and FY2024.

8. Russian Central Bank: Opec + will discuss a possible increase in oil production in early 2024 if the undersupply situation worsens further.

9. Minutes of the Fed's discount rate meeting: The Cleveland Fed governors had sought a quarter-point increase in the discount rate in September; Barkin: Inclined to keep interest rates unchanged, policy may be affected by the conflict in the Middle East; Kashkari: Inflation is still too high.

10, sea-based crude exports from Russia rebounded in the seven days to October 15th, bringing the four-week average to its highest in more than three months.

11. Data published by JODI, a joint oil database, showed Saudi Arabia's crude exports fell to a 28-month low in August as the kingdom continued to cut production to “stabilize” the global market.

MHMarkets

Institutional Perspective

01

Morgan Chase

【Morgan Chase: Playing defense in conflict to make gold and bonds look 'cheap'】

Marko Kolanovic of jpmorgan took a defensive approach to markets amid heightened political risk and restrictive monetary policy, saying government bonds looked cheap and that “it's time to position for a long trade.”

02

The World Bank

【President of the World Bank：Interest rates could remain elevated for longer and complicate the investment environment for companies and central banks around the world, especially if geopolitical tensions persist.】

World Bank President Ajay Banga said last week on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank that interest rates could remain elevated for longer and complicate the investment climate for global companies and central banks, especially if geopolitical tensions persist.

03

Commerzbank

【Commerzbank：We expect gold prices to continue to rise over the medium to long term】

“We expect gold prices to continue to rise over the medium to long term,” Commerzbank economists said. That said, the recovery is likely to start at a lower level, let alone later than we previously forecast.“ ”Once there are clearer signs of an imminent U.S. recession, starting around next spring, rate cut speculation will increase and provide greater support for gold.