Canadian Dollar steps back up to the plate, holding steady on shared data beats with the US

octa | 2023-10-12 14:19

Abstract：The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is finding some much-needed support in Thursday trading, swapping with the US Dollar (USD) after both currencies strengthened following economic data releases that “beat the street”.

• The Canadian Dollar is holding in place against the US Dollar for Thursday.

• Canadas Ivey PMIs beat expectations, giving the Loonie some much-needed support.

• US labor data also beat forecasts and markets will be turning to the upcoming NFP data drop.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is finding some much-needed support in Thursday trading, swapping with the US Dollar (USD) after both currencies strengthened following economic data releases that “beat the street”.

Canada‘s seasonally-adjusted Ivey Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for September came in well above expectations. On the US side, Initial Jobless Claims for the week into September 29th came in better than expected, and next up will be Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls figures, which promise to deliver plenty of volatility as FX markets remain firmly focused on US Dollar flows. The US NFP for September is forecast to decline from 187K to 170K.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Canadian Dollar holding in place as US Dollar pressure eases

• USD/CAD cycling Thursdays opening bids near 1.3743.

• Canadian Ivey PMIs beat the street, bolstering the Loonie.

• US Jobless Claims also jumped forecasts, hampering the CADs upside potential for the day.

• Canadian labor figures are due on Friday, and market analysts expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.6% for September.

• Canadian overall net change in employment seen declining from 49.9K to an even 20K.

• US NFP looms ahead, market flows will twist firmly towards the USD side to close out the trading week.

• US wages numbers are broadly expected to tick upwards from 0.2% to 0.3% for September.

• The battle over rate hike expectations isn‘t over yet, and FX market participants will be looking ahead to next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, due on Wednesday.

• Crude Oil prices continue to falter as global supply concerns ease back, further sapping upside momentum from the Loonie.

• Canadian Ivey PMIs printed at 53.1 versus the forecast 50.8 and falling back only slightly from the previous 53.5.

• US Initial Jobless Claims came in at 207K against the anticipated 210K. The figure still sees an increase in the number of new jobless claims over the previous weeks 205K (revised upwards from 204K).

Technical Analysis: Canadian Dollar swapping places with the Greenback, USD remains firm

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is waffling against the US Dollar (USD) for Thursday, trading close to the day‘s opening prices near 1.3740. The USD/CAD marked the day’s low in early Thursday trading near 1.3710 before rebounding to a fresh seven-month high of 1.3785, but Greenback‘s momentum couldn’t be maintained, and the pair settled back into the middle.

Swing points continue to etch in higher highs for the USD/CAD, but the pair looks set to begin an interim consolidation pattern as investors try to pick a direction moving forward. Recent lows have a technical support zone building out from 1.3700 to 1.3720, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rising to 1.3680.

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