Mai hui MHmarkets: July 25, 2023-MHM European Perspective

Market Overview

Spot gold edged up on Tuesday (July 25) Asian hours and is now trading at $1,962.07 an ounce, as Monday's closely watched purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys showed US business activity slowed in July while Europe contracted more than expected, suggesting both central banks may be nearing the end of their rate-hike cycles. That provided some support to gold prices, as further sustained rate hikes would increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion. And fears of a global recession are also supporting gold.

In addition, Russia has been expanding its air campaign by destroying some grain warehouses on Kyiv's export routes after pulling out of a Black Sea grain deal last week. That also attracted some safe-haven buying.

Still, gold bulls were wary as the dollar index closed out five straight sessions of gains and remains near its highest level in nearly two weeks. Near the Federal Reserve meeting, the market wait-and-see sentiment is becoming stronger, which may limit the volatility of gold prices, short-term gold prices tend to shock operation.

Us crude oil fluctuated in a narrow range, currently trading near $78.94 / barrel. Boosted by optimistic supply and demand prospects, oil prices rose sharply after topping the 200-day average overnight, hitting a new high in nearly three months, and temporarily ushered in a volatile adjustment. But because the fundamentals are still biased long, technical surface completed the upward breakthrough, A shares rose sharply on Tuesday, short-term oil prices are still expected to shock on the attack.

Oil prices have climbed for four weeks in a row as supply is expected to tighten due to production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers such as Russia, known as OPEC+.

China is the world's second-largest economy and second-largest consumer of oil. The government meeting said it would step up policy support for the economy, with a focus on boosting domestic demand.

In addition, Russia has been expanding its air campaign by destroying some grain warehouses on Kyiv's export routes after pulling out of a Black Sea grain deal last week. That factor also tends to support oil prices.

Still, bulls remain wary as downbeat data from the eurozone and the US highlighted weakness in the global economy.

The slump in eurozone business activity deepened much more than expected in July as demand in the bloc's dominant services sector fell and factory output fell at its fastest pace since the coronavirus pandemic first emerged, surveys showed.

In the U.S., closely-watched survey data showed business activity slowed to a five-month low in July, dragged down by decelerating service sector growth, but falling input prices and a slowdown in hiring suggest the Fed may be making progress in important ways in its efforts to reduce inflation.

Investors have already digested 25 basis point rate hikes by the Fed and ECB this week, so what Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde have to say about future rate hikes will be in focus.

From the technical point of view, oil prices have strong resistance near the April 24 high, and need to beware of the possibility of a small pullback in the short term.

This trading day needs to pay attention to the US API Crude Oil Stock Change、the market expectations of the Fed interest rate resolution changes and Ukraine geopolitical situation related news.

MHMarkets strategy is only for reference and not for investment advice. Please carefully read the statement at the end of the text. The following strategy will be updated at 15:00 on July 25, Beijing time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 1929-1937-1951-1960-1978-1985-1998

Overall Oscillation Range: 1730-1756-1780-1801-1817-1833-1856-1873-1889-1903-1911-1929-1937-1951-1960-1978-1985-1998-2007-2016-2033-2046-2057-2066-2077-2089-2097-2100

In the subsequent period of spot gold, 1929-1937-1951-1960-1978-1985-1998 can be operated as the bull and bear range; High throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on July 25. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 23.1-23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1

Overall Oscillation Range: 19.7-20.1-20.6-21.5-22.3-23.1-23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6-27.3

In the subsequent period of spot silver, 23.1-23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on July 25. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 73.8-75.1-77.9-78.5-79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3

Overall Oscillation Range: 62.1-63.7-64.5-65.8-66.9-67.3-68.9-70.1-71.2-72.3-73.1-73.8-75.1-77.9-78.5-79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3-87.3-89.1

In the subsequent period of crude oil, 73.8-75.1-77.9-78.5-79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on July 25. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.0830-1.0950-1.1157-1.1220-1.1303

Overall Oscillation Range: 1.0290-1.0360-1.0460-1.0570-1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157-1.1220-1.1303-1.13340

In the subsequent period of EURUSD, 1.0830-1.0950-1.1157-1.1220-1.1303 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on July 25. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.27000-1.28200-1.29300-1.30000-1.30600

Overall Oscillation Range: 1.1610-1.1830-1.1920-1.2030-1.2135-1.2250-1.2375-1.2400-1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200-1.29300-1.30000-1.30600-1.31000-1.31660-132000

In the subsequent period of GBPUSD, 1.27000-1.28200-1.29300-1.30000-1.30600 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on July 25. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.