MHMarkets ：MHM European Market

May 4, 2023-MHM European Perspective

Market Overview

On Thursday (May 4), during the Asian session, spot gold rallied and retreated, earlier once refreshing the all-time high to near $2079.38 per ounce; because the Federal Reserve interest rate resolution as expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and implied that the tightening cycle will be suspended, the market expectations of the Fed rate cut in September rose sharply, the dollar and U.S. bond yields fell, giving gold prices to support the upward momentum. But then gold prices retracted most of the gains, because overnight U.S. economic data performance is relatively strong, and the Fed chairman Powell's speech is still relatively hawkish.

After the short term rapid surge in gold prices, some long positions choose to take profits, also dragged down the gold price trend. However, the U.S. banking crisis and the U.S. debt default crisis worries, still to gold prices to provide safe-haven support. Gold prices after the market still have the opportunity to continue to shake higher.

This trading day, investors need to pay attention to the European Central Bank interest rate resolution, the change in the U.S. initial jobless claims, the U.S. Challenger business layoffs in April and the change in market expectations for the non-farm payrolls data.

U.S. crude oil bottomed out, earlier because of the Fed rate hike, the U.S. banking crisis, the U.S. debt default crisis and global recession concerns, U.S. crude oil once fell more than 6% to a new low of nearly a year and a half to $63.80 per barrel; but then quickly turned the decline into a rise, currently trading near $69.10 per barrel.

On the one hand, the short term decline in oil prices, after the market sentiment vent, in the March 20 low of 64.10 near the emergence of some short profit taking; on the other hand, because of the Krasnodar Territory in southern Russia, Elisky refinery was attacked by unknown drones on the same day, an oil depot fire burning; supply reduction is expected to heat up, and the decline of the dollar also provides support to oil prices.

In addition, the market is expected to see a significant slowdown in the growth of U.S. oil and gas output as the recent sharp pullback in prices leads to a reduction in new drilling and completions.

MHMarkets strategy is only for reference and not for investment advice. Please carefully read the statement at the end of the text. The following strategy will be updated at 15:00 on May 4, Beijing time.