MHMarkets ：MHM Today News

☆ 14:00 CHF March Trade Account

☆ 18:00 UK April CBI Industrial Order Difference

☆ 21:00 US February FHFA housing price index monthly rate, US February S&P/CS 20 major city housing price index annual rate

☆ 22:00 Annualized total sales of new homes in the United States in March, consumer confidence index of the Conference Board in April, and manufacturing index of the Richmond Federal Reserve in April

☆ API crude oil inventory for the week from 04:30 the next day to April 21 in the United States

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

The Dallas Federal Reserve's Business Activity Index and Manufacturing Output Index for April, both released on Monday evening, fell short of expectations, sparking concerns about a slowdown in the US economy. The US dollar index fell as low as 101.33, closing 0.33% lower at 101.35.

The yield on US Treasuries fell, with both two-year and 10-year yields falling by over 6 basis points. The yield on two-year Treasuries fell from 4.18% to 4.09% on the day, while the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell from 3.57% to 3.49% on the day. In addition, due to concerns about the economic outlook and debt ceiling, the short-term insurance cost to prevent technical defaults on US bonds has risen to a historic high.

Spot gold benefited from the decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and briefly returned to the 1990 US dollar level during the trading session. It then fell slightly and closed up 0.32% at $1989.17 per ounce. Spot silver briefly fell to $24.79 per ounce in the intraday trading, then returned to the $25 level and closed up 0.3% at $25.16 per ounce.

The crude oil news was light, but it continued to rise on Monday, recovering some of the land lost last week. WTI crude oil closed up 0.95% at $78.65 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.03% at $82.44 per barrel.

The US stock market closed with three major indices diverging, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 0.2%, the S&P 500 Index slightly up 0.09%, and the Nasdaq closing down 0.29%. Lithium batteries and oil and gas sectors led gains, while popular Chinese concept stocks and WSB concept stocks generally fell.

European stocks closed lower, while the German DAX30 index closed 0.10% lower; The FTSE 100 Index in the UK closed down 0.02%; The French CAC40 index closed 0.04% lower; The European Stoxx 50 index closed 0.14% lower; The IBEX35 index in Spain closed down 0.07%; The Italian FTSE MIB index closed 0.74% lower.          

Market Focus

1. LVMH became the first European public company to reach $500 billion in market capitalization.

2. First Republic Bank's U.S. shares plunged 20% after hours, its quarter-end deposit balance was lower than expected, and it conducted a no-questions-asked earnings call.

3. Vietnam media: Vietnam's foreign direct investment fell 1.2% year-on-year in January-April.

4. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at sticking to stimulus ahead of its first interest rate meeting.

5. British media: EU and Japan oppose the U.S. proposal to ban all exports to Russia by the G7.

6. Sudanese Rapid Support Forces announced a 72-hour ceasefire; media quoted Egypt's foreign minister as saying that an Egyptian embassy official was killed in Sudan.

Geopolitical Situation

1. The Russian Defense Ministry said that three Ukrainian naval drones tried to attack the Russian fleet in Sevastopol and all three were destroyed.

2. Director of the General Intelligence Service of Ukraine: The negotiations on the exchange of all detainees between Russia and Ukraine are in principle close to a consensus.

3. European Commission Vice President and Foreign Minister Borrelli: There are still some differences regarding the EU's plans to provide Ukraine with more ammunition.

4. Russian government sources: Russia is expected to produce more than the expected 480 million tons of oil in 2023, and its 2023 oil output will be in line with its commitment to cut production by 500,000 barrels per day by the end of the year.

5. President of the Russian Grain Union: Russia may export about 60 million tons of grain this quarter, which was a record high, including 50 million tons of wheat.

6. UN Secretary General Guterres urged to continue the implementation of Ukraine's Black Sea grain agreement and Russia's grain and fertilizer agreement.

7. According to a Reuters poll: All 23 economists surveyed believe that the Bank of Russia will leave the key interest rate unchanged at 7.5% on Friday.  

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

Tighter credit conditions are expected to reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points in 2023, Goldman Sachs analyst Jan Hatzius said in a recent report.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

【Societe Generale: U.S. tax revenue drop in April will bring forward debt deadline】

April 21, Societe Generale Subadra Rajappa and other strategists said in a report that the U.S. Treasury is more likely to run out of its borrowing capacity sometime in June if tax revenues for the rest of April are around 50% of 2022 levels. Societe Generale still expects the U.S. Treasury to run out of its borrowing capacity between late July and early August, but the forecast will face uncertainty if tax revenues are much lower than currently expected. Societe Generale said the forecast is based on assumptions about tax revenues for the remainder of April and the size of borrowing available under the extraordinary measures.

03

MUFG

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged amid tight credit in the U.S. and European banking sectors.