Mohicans markets：MHM Today News

☆ At 16:45, Bank of England Governor Bailey, Vice Governor Woods, and Ramsden attended a hearing on Silicon Valley banks by the Parliamentary Special Committee on Finance (TSC).

☆ At 22:00, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the banking incident in Silicon Valley, with Federal Reserve Governor Barr attending.

☆ At 4:30 the next day, the United States will announce its API crude oil inventory for the current week. If there are signs of inventory accumulation again, it may continue to drag down the oil market.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

As concerns about the banking crisis eased, spot gold fell sharply by $30 from its intraday high, narrowly holding the 1950 level, and ended down 1.1% at $1956.61 per ounce; Spot silver fluctuated around the 23 level and ended down 0.62% at $23.07 per ounce.

The US dollar index began to decline in Europe and fell below the 103 mark, ending down 0.27% at 102.83; Due to market bets that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in May will rise to 50%, the yield on two-year US Treasuries will rise to around 4%, and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries will rise from a low of 3.285% to 3.539%.

In terms of crude oil, due to the problem of Turkey's port export, the two oil companies staged a “The Knockout”. WTI crude oil surged more than 5% in the day, once above US $73, and finally ended up 5.26% at US $72.8 per barrel; Brent crude oil rose more than 4%, rebounding above $78, and finally closed up 4.34% at $77.72 per barrel.

The US stock index ended 0.6% higher, the S&P 500 index ended 0.16% higher, and the Nasdaq index ended 0.47% lower. Regional bank stocks opened higher and closed higher, with the shares of First Citizen Bank rising 54%, the biggest one-day gain since 1990. Coinbase closed down about 8%.

European stocks closed higher across the board, with the DAX30 index in Germany rising 1.14%, the FTSE 100 index in the UK rising 0.9%, the CAC40 index in France rising 0.9%, and the Stoxx 50 index in Europe rising 0.82%.

Market Focus

1. First Citizens Bank acquired $72 billion of Silicon Valley Bank assets at a $16.5 billion discount, with about $90 billion of other assets pending disposition by the FDIC. The FDIC will also provide $70 billion in potential liquidity facilities.

2. Bank crisis eases, market bets on May Fed rate hike odds rise to 50%, U.S. bond 2Y jumped 24BP, gold plunged $20, international oil prices rose over 5%, First Citizens shares surged over 50%, completely erasing the decline since this crisis.

3. Humza Yousaf was elected as the new head of the British Scottish National Party.

4. The Hungarian Parliament voted to approve Finland's request to join NATO.

5. Zhao Changpeng and Cryptocurrency were sued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission for alleged regulatory violations while seeking to impose a permanent trading ban.

6. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a delay in judicial reform legislation, and a nationwide strike was then called off.

7. the U.S. government will require semiconductor companies to submit financial projections for funding under the chip bill.

8. Informed sources: Iraqi federal government and Kurdish officials failed to agree on resuming oil exports of about 400,000 barrels per day from a Turkish port.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation：

1. Russian Defense Ministry: Russian troops have launched an offensive against Ukrainian positions in the Donetsk region from five directions.

2. According to Ukraine's state news agency: Zelensky inspected the city of Nikopol, which is under constant shelling.

3. An explosion in the Russian-controlled city of Melitopol in southern Ukraine wounded a police chief and hit a military facility, Ukrainian officials said.

4. Russian missile strikes killed at least two people and wounded 29 in the eastern Ukrainian city of Slavyansk.

Assistance Situation：

1. According to the German weekly Der Spiegel: German-supplied Leopard 2 tanks have arrived in Ukraine. Germany hopes to increase its military aid to Ukraine to 15 billion euros in the coming years.

2. German Chancellor Scholz confirmed the supply of 18 tanks to Ukraine.

3. Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov said that Ukrainian airborne troops have received Challenger tanks from the UK, Stryker and Cougar vehicles from the US, and yellow tanks from Germany. and the German “Weasel” infantry fighting vehicle.  

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

The U.S. has a 35% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 25% previously.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

Societe Generale: Gold becomes an excellent hedge against geopolitical tensions.

The dollar is losing momentum in its dominant position due to recent geopolitical events. Economists at Societe Generale said in a report that de-dollarization is a long-term process that could benefit gold. “The risk of the U.S. maintaining a tougher stance is increasing ahead of the next U.S. elections. Geopolitical tensions in the context of war may continue. The longer the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues, the more countries that are not aligned with the West will want to de-dollarize as soon as possible, which will encourage them to de-dollarize their portfolios and continue buying gold (keeping the recommended 6% asset allocation unchanged). Real yields will be lower in the future.”

03

MUFG

Mitsubishi UFJ: G10 commodity currencies still face downside risks in the short term.

On March 27 -- G10 commodity currencies are underperforming due to heightened banking concerns. Economists at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group said in a report that G10 commodity currencies still face downside risks in the short term. The tightening credit environment in the banking sector will pose downside risks to global growth. However, a stronger-than-expected rebound in Chinese demand later this year is expected to boost commodity currencies.