Mohicans markets ：MHM Today News

☆ Many countries in Europe have started implementing summer time, and the trading time and economic data release time of the financial markets in the European region will be one hour earlier than winter time.

☆ Asian session trading in recovering nickel on the London Metal Exchange.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

Last Friday, as the market's “fear of the banking industry” burned to Deutsche Bank, spot gold rose in response and again hit the $2000 mark. However, during the US session, it was suppressed by US bond yields and took back nearly $30 in intraday trading, eventually closing 0.77% lower at $1978.36 per ounce; Spot silver rose first and then fell with gold, but later pulled up and recovered some of its losses, ending up 0.52% higher at $23.22 per ounce.

Affected by the market's risk aversion sentiment, the US dollar index jumped above the 103 level in Europe and ended up 0.51% at 103.11; The yield of US 10-year treasury bond bonds also suffered a setback in the European market due to the demand for risk aversion. However, affected by the higher than expected PMI data and Brad's continued hawking, it recovered most of its losses in the US market and finally closed at 3.373%.

Crude oil showed a “V” trend. WTI crude oil fell more than 3% during the European session, but recovered most of its losses during the US session, eventually closing 0.33% lower at $69.19 per barrel, while Brent crude oil closed 1.36% lower at $71.36 per barrel.

The US stock index ended up 0.56%, the Nasdaq index ended up 0.31%, and the S&P 500 index ended up 0.56%. Most of the popular Chinese stocks ended lower, with MINISO down more than 6%, Pinduoduo down 4%, and New Oriental and iQiyi down 3%.

Most major European stock indexes ended lower, with the DAX30 index in Germany ending 1.66% lower, the FTSE 100 index in the UK ending 1.26% lower, the CAC40 index in France ending 0.88% higher, and the Stoxx 50 index in Europe ending 1.82% lower.  

Market Focus

1. Does the hawkish members of the vote turn doves？ Fed's Kashkari said the banking sector pressure increased the risk of recession.

2. According to the U.S. media: parts of the United States more than 20 million people will be in the threat of strong stormy weather on the 26th.

3. Israeli people protesting judicial reform broke through a barricade near the home of the country's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, and the defense minister who called for a halt to the reform has been fired.

4. Total Energy spokesman: 33% of the company's French refinery and warehouse operations went on strike Sunday; German air and rail services will be brought to a halt Monday due to a workers' strike.

5. According to Kyodo News: Japan plans to coordinate with G7 countries on regulating cryptocurrencies and make it a topic of discussion at the Hiroshima summit in May.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation：

1. The Head of National Security of Ukraine: the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus will lead to “internal instability” in Belarus.

2. Spokesman of the State Border Service of Ukraine: the number of Russian troops deployed in Belarus has been reduced, currently about 4,000 Russian military personnel are stationed in Belarus.

3. According to Ukrainska Pravda: Ukrainian border guards repelled the assault troops of “Wagner Group” in Bakhmut.

4. A spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry said that Russian armed forces hit 84 artillery squads in Ukrainian firing positions. A number of Ukrainian drones were shot down in the Luhansk region, Zaporozhye region and other places.

5. A Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said that up to 20 Ukrainian servicemen, an Akatsiya self-propelled gun, and a U.S.-made M777 howitzer were destroyed in Kherson region.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

【Goldman Sachs: U.S. corporate spending outlook is worsening】

On March 25-- Goldman Sachs strategists said there are signs that the outlook for corporate spending is worsening. The desire to protect margins from rising interest expenses has led to lower cash balances, with S&P 500 corporate cash falling 12% in 2022, the largest annual decline on record. Goldman Sachs said buybacks typically lead to “stickier” spending on capital expenditures and research and development, but despite a record $360 billion buyback authorization so far this year, the data show that the actual execution rate this year is well below 2022 levels. The potential for banks to further tighten lending conditions poses an additional downside risk to the outlook.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

Societe Generale: Gold becomes an excellent hedge against geopolitical tensions.

The dollar is losing momentum in its dominant position due to recent geopolitical events. Economists at Societe Generale said in a report that de-dollarization is a long-term process that could benefit gold. “The risk of the U.S. maintaining a tougher stance is increasing ahead of the next U.S. elections. Geopolitical tensions in the context of war may continue. The longer the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues, the more countries that are not aligned with the West will want to de-dollarize as soon as possible, which will encourage them to de-dollarize their portfolios and continue buying gold (keeping the recommended 6% asset allocation unchanged). Real yields will be lower in the future.”

03

MUFG

【Mitsubishi UFJ: Euro may benefit as Eurozone terms of trade improve.】

On March 23, Mitsubishi UFJ said the euro should benefit if the terms of trade in the euro zone continue to improve as energy prices fall. Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Derek Halpenny said in a report that the reversal of the ongoing energy trade shock could amount to a reduction in outflows from the euro zone of more than 400 billion euros a year. “Energy prices may not stay at this level, so the scale may be smaller, but we're just talking about a scenario where this is a positive development for the euro going forward, and it's highly unlikely that the Eurozone will be in the same position it was in last year when TTF gas prices briefly breached 300 euros per megawatt.”