Mohicans markets：MHM Today News

☆ The annual rate of the whole social electricity consumption in February, the whole social electricity consumption in February, and the data of the whole social electricity consumption released by the National Energy Administration around the 15th, the time to be determined.

☆ North America begins to implement daylight saving time, and the trading time and economic data release time of financial markets in the United States and Canada will be one hour earlier.

☆ At 9 o'clock, the sixth plenary session (closing session) of the National People's Congress was held to vote on the draft resolution on the government work report.

☆ At 10:30, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council will attend the press conference and answer questions from Chinese and foreign journalists in the golden hall on the third floor of the Great Hall of the People.

☆ At 11:00, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation of the United States and the Federal Reserve introduced the relevant information of Silicon Valley Bank to California lawmakers.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

Last Friday evening, after the release of the weak non-agricultural report, the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase of 50 basis points in March cooled down, and the dollar index continued to plunge, once narrowly missed the 104 mark, closing down 0.59% at 104.63.

The yield of the two-year US bond reached 4.85% at one time, but it continued to decline after the announcement of the non-agricultural issue. The intra-day decline reached 29 basis points at one time, and the US shares closed at around 4.59%; The yield of 10-year US Treasuries fell by about 20 basis points within the day, and the yield of two-year US Treasuries ended six consecutive rises.

Driven by the risk aversion triggered by the collapse of the Silicon Valley bank and the non-agricultural report, the spot gold broke through the three levels of 1850, 1860 and 1870 in a row, and then took back some of its gains, closing up 1.97% to 1867.03 US dollars/ounce, hitting a new closing high since February 10, and achieving a two-week continuous rise. Spot silver continued to rise after the non-agricultural announcement, closing up 2.32% at US $20.53/ounce.

The international crude oil hit a new low in the European market at the beginning, but after the announcement of the non-agricultural data, the decline was flat and turned higher. WTI crude oil rose to 77.08 US dollars/barrel, up 1.38% to 76.61 US dollars/barrel; Brent crude oil rose to US $83.06/barrel, or 1.44%, to US $82.66/barrel after the non-agricultural announcement. Last week, both the oil and oil of the US cloth ended down, and erased the gains of the previous two weeks.

The three major stock indexes of the US stock market collectively opened lower, and the decline expanded rapidly at the beginning of the session, and then narrowed, with the Nasdaq down 1.76%, the S&P down 1.45%, and the Dow down 1.07%. Most of the major banks and leading technology stocks continued to decline. The popular Chinese stock market rose and fell in different directions, and the B station, Ctrip and New Oriental successfully rebounded. The major US stock indexes fell sharply this week, with the S&P down 4.55%, and more than 4% for the first week since September 23 last year.

The European stock market ended down, with Germany's DAX30 index down 1.31%, the FTSE 100 index down 1.68%, France's CAC40 index down 1.30%, the European Stoxx 50 index down 1.30%, Spain's IBEX35 index down 1.46%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index down 1.56%.  

Market Focus

1. The Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury Department and other departments intervened in the Silicon Valley Bank incident, and all depositors were able to withdraw funds on Monday to provide a new $25 billion emergency loan program.

2. Saudi Aramco CEO: Oil demand is expected to increase to nearly 102 million barrels per day by the end of 2023.

3. North America entered daylight saving time, financial markets opened one hour earlier.

4. U.S. media: Biden will stop or limit oil extraction activities on up to 13 million acres of land in Alaska and the Arctic Ocean region.  

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation：

1. According to Fligradar24, a flight information platform, U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratospheric Fortress strategic bombers conducted exercises near the Russian border.

2. The Russian Defense Ministry: Russian troops struck Ukrainian personnel and weaponry in Kupyansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Kherson and other directions, destroying many Ukrainian guns, radars, armored vehicles and others.

3. Ukrainian state news agency: Ukrainian troops repelled several Russian attacks in Bakhmut and other places.

Energy Situation：

1. Saudi Aramco's 2022 profit reached a record high of $161.1 billion as oil prices rose following the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

2. Spain's Enagas Energy: The country's gas imports from Russia rose 151% in February 2023 compared to the same period last year.

Food Situation：

1. Russian Foreign Ministry: its grain exports continue to be obstructed by Western countries.

2. Turkish Defense Minister: About 24 million tons of grain have been sent to countries in need through the Black Sea grain agreement, and Turkey hopes to actively resolve the issue of the extension of the “food agreement”.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs believes dollar position levels have become more balanced.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

【Societe Generale: ECB Unlikely to Make Surprise Policy Next Week】

March 10, Societe Generale interest rate strategists wrote in a report that the ECB is not expected to make many market surprises in terms of monetary policy decisions, and the market's reaction is expected to depend on the hawkishness of Lagarde's press conference. In line with general market expectations, Societe Generale expects the ECB to raise interest rates by 50 basis points next week, bringing the deposit rate to 3.00%.

03

MUFG

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its original policy unchanged. Although there is a risk of exceeding expectations, the yield target will be adjusted by the next governor, and adjustments may be made at the June meeting.