Mohicans markets：MHM European Market

Market Overview

On Thursday (January 12), in the Asian session, the spot gold rose in volatile. The current trade price is around $1883.80 /ounce, approaching the new seven-month high of $1886.50 /ounce hit overnight. The market expects that the US CPI data will show a slowdown in the growth of inflation, and the US dollar is weak at the low level in the past seven months, providing support for the gold price.

The performance of the previous two US CPI data was weaker than expected, and the gold price rose by nearly $50 and more than $30 respectively on the same day. If the US CPI data in December was weaker than expected in the evening, the gold price might rise above the 1900 level. At present, this possibility is relatively large. The strong resistance is close to the 1920 level, and the high resistance on April 29 is also near this position.

From the perspective of the dollar trend, the daily level of the dollar index has initially broken down, and the dollar index is likely to fall sharply in the evening, which will provide an opportunity for the gold price to rise sharply.

Slightly different from the previous two CPI data releases, the current gold price has partially digested the expectation of the possible slowdown of inflation in the United States, and the signal released by the Federal Reserve officials at that time was basically consistent with the market expectations. At present, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates within the year, but the Federal Reserve officials generally tend to reduce interest rates only in 2023.

Investors need to beware of the “the shoes drop” situation in which the gold price rises first and then falls or rises and falls back. This trading day coincides with a number of speeches made by the Federal Reserve ticket committee. If the Fed officials continue to make hawkish speeches, it may also limit the rising space of the gold price or even cause the market to reverse.

US crude oil fluctuated in a narrow range. At present, it is trading near $77.45 /barrel, holding most of the overnight gains. Although the EIA crude oil inventory increased significantly, it was attributed to bad weather. The impact of China's reopening economy continues to ferment, and the market's optimism about the growth of fuel demand in 2023 continues to rise. The market is also worried that the United States and Europe will continue to impose more sanctions on Russia, and the supply side may be further tightened. Goldman Sachs also raised its oil price expectations, and the short-term oil market is biased towards bulls.

In addition, investors should also pay attention to the possibility that the US CPI data in December meets expectations or is stronger than market expectations. In both cases, the gold price will face certain downside risks in the short term.

In addition, the change in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States will also be announced in the evening, which also needs to be noted.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not for investment advice. Please read the statement clauses at the end of the text carefully. The following strategy was updated at 16:00 Beijing time on January 12, 2023.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 1833-1856-1873-1893

Overall Large Oscillation Range: 1730-1756-1780-1801-1817-1833-1856-1873-1893-1911

Spot gold in the subsequent period, 1833-1856-1873-1893 can be operated as an intraday range of bullish and bearish; high throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on January 12. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 23.1-23.9-24.5-25.3

Overall Large Oscillation Range: 20.6-21.5-22.3-23.1-23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1

Spot silver in the subsequent period, 23.1-23.9-24.5-25.3 can be operated as an intraday range of bullish and bearish; high throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on January 12. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 73.8-75.1-77.3-78.5

Overall Large Oscillation Range: 70.1-71.2-72.3-73.1-73.8-75.1-77.3-78.5-79.9-81.3-82.1-83.5

Crude Oil in the subsequent period, 73.8-75.1-77.3-78.5 can be operated as an intraday range of bullish and bearish; high throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on January 12. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.0690-1.0755-1.0830

Overall Large Oscillation Range: 1.0290-1.0360-1.0460-1.0570-1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0910

EURUSD in the subsequent period, 1.0690-1.0755-1.0830 can be operated as an intraday range of bullish and bearish; high throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on January 12. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.1920-1.2030-1.2135-1.2250

Overall Large Oscillation Range: 1.1610-1.1830-1.1920-1.2030-1.2135-1.2250-1.2400-1.2470

GBPUSD in the subsequent period, 1.1920-1.2030-1.2135-1.2250 can be operated as an intraday range of bullish and bearish; high throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on January 12. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.