Mohicans markets：MHM Today’s News

December 7, 2022-Fundamental Reminder

☆ 08:30 Australia releases annual rate of GDP in the third quarter.

☆ 10:00 China releases trade balance for November.

☆ 18:00 Eurozone publishes final annual rate of GDP in the third quarter,  and quarterly rate of seasonally adjusted employment in the third quarter.

☆ 23:00 Bank of Canada announces interest rate resolution.

☆ 23:30 U.S. releases EIA crude oil inventories and strategic oil reserve stocks for the week ending Dec. 2.

MHMarkets -Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Tuesday, December 6, the dollar index turned up in late trading, and closed up 0.25% at 105.56. The euro lost 1.05 against the dollar, the pound fell below 1.22 against the dollar again, and the dollar rose above 137 against the yen.

The 10-year U.S. bond yield sank the deepest 9 basis points to 3.51%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield fell more than 5 basis points to 4.34%. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield extended its decline to 3.518%, the lowest level since Sept. 22. The inversion of the key 2-year and 10-year yield curves widened to nearly 85 basis points, the deepest since 1981.

Spot gold once touched $1,780, the U.S. late erased almost all of its gains and once lost the 1,770 mark, finally closing up 0.12% at $1,771 per ounce. Spot silver lost the $23 mark, closing down 0.28% at $22.19 per ounce.

Crude oil plunged as a broader market sell-off and concerns about a U.S. interest rate hike combined to erase bullish sentiment in energy markets. WTI crude oil fell nearly 5% intraday and Brent oil slumped 5% to its lowest level since January this year. By the close of trading, WTI crude closed down 3.76% at $74.44 a barrel, while Brent crude closed down 4.05% at $79.66 per barrel. European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures ended the day up nearly 5%, near their daily high and above the 140 euro per megawatt-hour mark.

U.S. stocks closed lower collectively for the second day in a row this week, with the Dow closing down 1.03% and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing down 2% and 1.44%, respectively. The energy, social media and semiconductor sectors were down, with Meta Platforms closing down 6.8%.

European stocks closed lower collectively, with Germany's DAX30 closing down 0.7%, the FTSE 100 closing down 0.56%, France's CAC 40 closing down 0.14%, the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.47%, Spain's IBEX 35 closing down 0.47% and Italy's FTSE MIB closing down 1.06%.

Hot spots in the market

1. Global central bank gold reserves rose to the highest level since 1974.

2. Russia considers setting the minimum price limit of oil export or the maximum discount under the benchmark oil price in response to the oil price limit of the Group of Seven.

3. President Jokovi of Indonesia: Indonesia will “soon decide” when to ban the export of bauxite.

4. The two parties in the United States are mediating to prevent the suspension of the government, or drafting an appropriation bill for full government spending in the next year.

5. Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model: raise the US Q4 economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 3.4%. 6. EIA short-term energy outlook report: cut the average oil and gas prices and demand growth forecast for next year, and raise the output forecast.

7. CME: The margin of WTI crude oil for January August 2023 contract was lowered by 500 dollars to 7000 dollars.

8. Senator of the Democratic Party of the United States: A comprehensive cryptocurrency bill is being drafted, which will give the Securities and Exchange Commission the largest regulatory power over the market.

9. The Federal Reserve of Australia raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.10%, the interest rate level rose to the highest level in 10 years, and it is expected to raise the interest rate in the future.

10. The Nasdaq continued this week's decline and closed 2% lower. China probability stocks showed resilience and the Golden Dragon Index closed 1.3% higher; The oil market was sluggish, and international oil prices hit a new year low.

11. Goldman Sachs 2075 Global Economic Outlook: Indonesia will become the fourth largest economy in the world; The United States is unlikely to repeat the strong performance of the past 10 years, and the strong dollar will dissipate in the next decade; Due to the demographic problem, the heyday of potential global growth has passed.

Geopolitical situation

Energy situation:

1. Insiders: Russia considers setting a minimum price limit for oil exports or a maximum discount under the benchmark oil price in response to the oil price limit of the Group of Seven.

2. According to Russian media Kommersant: Russia's oil output in November increased by 2% month on month, reaching 1.49 million tons/day.

3. With the implementation of the EU's oil price ceiling ban on Russia, the blockage of oil tankers near Türkiye's Bosporus Strait has intensified, and Türkiye's insurance regulations have blocked 18 million barrels of oil.

4. The Dnipropetrovsk State Grid Company of Ukraine said that an emergency power outage was implemented in Dnipropetrovsk State.

5. Deputy Prime Minister Novak of Russia: Russia may reduce its oil production, but not too much; Russia's mechanism to ban the sale of oil that meets the western price ceiling should be launched before the end of this year.

Institutional Perspective

1. Goldman Sachs：The possibility of economic recession and soft landing is 35%

2. SOCIETE GENERALE：The recent rebound in US debt may not indicate an improvement in the situation

3. MUFG：Bank of Canada may strengthen Canadian dollar weakness

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