Mohicans markets：MHM Today News

November 29, 2022 - Fundamentals Reminder

☆ At 18:00, the euro area announced the final value of November's industrial and economic climate index and consumer confidence index.

☆ At 21:00, Germany announced the initial monthly rate of CPI in November.

☆ At 22:00, the US announced the monthly rate of FHFA house price index in September and the annual rate of S&P/CS house price index in 20 big cities.

☆ 23:00 The United States announced the consumer confidence index of the Conference Chamber of Commerce in November.

☆ 23:00 Bank of England Governor Bailey gave testimony in the House of Lords.

☆ At 05:30 the next day, the United States announced the API crude oil inventory for the week of November 25.

MHMarkets - Market Overview

Review of global market trend

On Monday (November 28), boosted by the hawkish speech of Federal Reserve officials, the dollar index began to rise sharply after falling to 105.33, reaching the highest point of 106.76, closing 0.56% higher at 106.66.Non US currencies fell sharply under pressure, and the Australian dollar fell 1.5% against the US dollar during the day; GBP fell more than 1% against USD during the day; The US dollar rose 1.35 against the Canadian dollar, a new high since the 10th of this month.

The 10-year US bond yield also stopped falling and turned up to 3.7% in the intraday, but as of the closing of the US stock market, it did not hold this threshold, trading around 3.68%; The yield of two-year US bonds, which are more sensitive to interest rates, rose to 4.486% at the highest and fell to 4.44% at the end of the day.

Spot gold fell from above 1763, losing US $1740/ounce, closing 0.67% lower at US $1741.78/ounce; Spot silver fell below the $21 mark, closing 2.39% lower at $20.94 per ounce.

As OPEC+is expected to consider further production reduction at the meeting this weekend, the oil price climbed to the intraday high, reversing the initial decline of more than 3%.WTI crude oil once rose more than 2% to 77.8 dollars/barrel, while Brent crude oil stood at 84 dollars/barrel.Finally, WTI crude oil fell 0.01% to 76.52 USD/barrel; Brent crude oil closed 0.69% lower at USD 83.21/barrel.

US stocks closed lower collectively, with the Dow Jones Index down 1.45%, the S&P 500 Index down 1.51%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index down 1.58%.Cruise lines, department stores, gold and other sectors fell, while popular Chinese probability stocks bucked the market and gained about 13% after many achievements.

European stocks closed down collectively, with Germany's DAX30 index closing 1.06% lower, Britain's FTSE 100 index closing 0.16% lower, France's CAC40 index closing 0.70% lower, Europe's Stoxx 50 index closing 0.65% lower, Spain's IBEX35 index closing 1.13% lower, and Italy's FTSE MIB index closing 1.12% lower.

Market Focus

1. The EU failed to agree on discussions to set a minimum price cap on Russian oil at $62. The U.S. denied putting excessive pressure on the EU to implement the cap measure.

2. Biden called on Congress to take action to avoid a rail shutdown.

3. The world's largest active volcano in Hawaii, Mauna Loa, erupted on Monday.

4. Advisory body Eurasia Group: OPEC+ will seriously consider a new production cut deal at its weekend meeting.

5. The USDA said its weekly crop progress report will be delayed until Nov. 29 due to a system glitch.

6. Cryptocurrency platform BlockFi filed for bankruptcy, firing 2/3 of its employees and selling off all cryptocurrencies to replenish cash flow.

7. ECB President Lagarde: I'd be surprised if inflation says it's topped out.

8. 【Fed officials speak】Bullard: the market slightly underestimated the possibility of the Fed taking more aggressive rate hikes next year, reiterating the need to raise rates to the lower limit of 5-7%; Williams: restrictive policy will continue until the end of next year, perhaps starting to cut rates in 2024, with a slightly higher path of rate hikes than expected in September; Meister: not close to suspending rate hikes; several officials expect no recession in the U.S. economy.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation：

1. President of Ukraine Zelensky held a meeting of the Supreme Command on the same day. The participants were briefed on the situation on the front line and discussed the issues of strengthening the protection of critical infrastructure and increasing the effectiveness of Ukraine's air defense. The meeting also focused on the maintenance of the equipment of the Ukrainian armed forces and the issue of securing winter supplies.

2. Russian Defense Ministry: Russian troops destroyed 8 UAF command posts, 57 artillery detachments, as well as living forces and technical equipment in 124 positions, and destroyed 2 ammunition depots.

3. Russian Defense Ministry: Russian troops eliminated about 80 Ukrainian servicemen and repelled 2 attacks of the Ukrainian army in the “Luhansk People's Republic” in one day. The Russian Air Force conducted high-precision strikes in the Dnepropetrovsk region, eliminating more than 100 Ukrainian servicemen. One day shot down 7 drones of the Ukrainian army and intercepted 2 anti-radiation missiles fired by Ukrainian troops.

4. Ukrainian President Zelensky: In the past week, Russia conducted 258 artillery strikes on 30 settlements in the southern Kherson region.

5. The local government of Anielgodar said on Nov. 28 that the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant remains under Russian control.

Energy Situation：

1. The EU failed to agree on discussions to cap Russian oil prices at a minimum of $62. The U.S. side denied putting excessive pressure on the EU to implement the cap measure.

2. CERN stopped the operation of the Large Hadron Collider on November 28, two weeks before the scheduled date, in order to save energy due to the risk of energy shortage.

3. Gazprom: decided not to reduce gas supplies to Moldova.

4. Kiev Regional Grid Company, a subsidiary of Ukraine's DTEK Energy Group, said that emergency blackouts will continue to be implemented in Kiev on the 28th.

5. The Hungarian government said that Hungary can maintain the oil price cap after January 1 only if there is no disruption of oil shipments from Russia and the MOL refinery continues to operate.

Institutional Perspective

1. Goldman Sachs：U.S. stocks have yet to reflect the impending recession.

2. SOCIETE GENERALE：The S&P 500 is expected to reach 3,800 points by the end of 2023.

3. MUFG：Looking ahead to Fed Chairman Powell's speech: expected to convey a “hawkish policy message”.

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