Mohicans markets ：MHM Today’s News

November 9, 2022--Fundamental Reminder

☆ 07:50 Japan releases Trade Balance for September.

☆ 09:30 China releases annual rate of CPI for October.

☆ 16:00 Fed's Williams speaks.

☆ 23:30 U.S. releases EIA crude oil inventories, and EIA strategic oil reserve stocks for the week ending Nov. 4.

☆ 24:00 Fed's Balkin speaks on U.S. economic outlook.

Market Overview

Global Market Trends Review

On Tuesday, November 8, as investors greeted the U.S. midterm elections and CPI data for October, the dollar index continued to fall, falling back below 110 for the first time since Oct. 27, closing down 0.56% at 109.60. The euro turned up against the dollar and returned to above parity, the pound touched 1.16 against the dollar at one point, and the dollar fell below the 146 mark against the yen.

U.S. Treasury yields fell from high levels, the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell from 4.24% to 4.12%; more sensitive to monetary policy 2-year U.S. bond yields fell 7.5 basis points to 4.65%, giving back gains during the week.

Spot gold in the U.S. market suddenly sharply higher than the 1710 mark, once compared to the low during the day pulled up more than $ 52, rose through the four integer barriers from $ 1680 to $ 1710, finally closed up 2.22% at $ 1712.58 per ounce. Spot silver once jumped 4% during the day, breaking through $ 21.60 per ounce, and finally closed up 2.68% at $ 21.35 per ounce.

Despite the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar, oil prices fell for a second consecutive day, with WTI crude closing down 3.49% at $88.67 per barrel and Brent crude closing down 2.94% at $95.08 per barrel.

U.S. stocks turned down several times during the day, and rallied in late trading, with the Dow closing up 1.02%, the Nasdaq closing up 0.49%, and the S&P 500 closing up 0.56%.

European stocks generally closed up, Germany DAX30 index closed up 1.16%; FTSE 100 index closed up 0.16%; France CAC40 index closed up 0.39%; European Stoxx 50 index closed up 0.85%; Spain IBEX35 index closed up 0.48%; Italy FTSE MIB index closed up 0.87%.

Hot spots in the market

1. The COP27 joint report calls for an annual investment of $2 trillion to support developing countries.

2. The export poll shows that in the mid-term elections on November 8, about 70% of American voters said they did not want to see Biden participate in the 2024 American election.

3. The world's highest lottery jackpot record was refreshed to 2.04 billion dollars.

4. ICE's initial margin of Brent crude oil futures in the near month increased by 4.92%.

5. Source: The European Commission told countries at the seminar on Monday that there was no way to set a ceiling on the price of natural gas as required by EU leaders at the previous summit.

6. Germany plans to more than double its net debt in 2023 to 45 billion euros. British Prime Minister Sunak is considering expanding the coverage of the highest income tax rate or raising the tax rate. The protracted Brexit dispute between the UK and the EU is close to making breakthrough progress.

7. EIA short-term energy outlook report: The growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2023 is lowered by 320000 barrels/day to 1.16 million barrels/day, and the average price of WTI crude oil and distribution oil is expected to be 89.33 dollars and 95.33 dollars respectively next year.

8. The CEO of Binance signed a non binding agreement to completely acquire the non US business of the cryptocurrency platform FTX, to help make up for the “liquidity squeeze” of FTX.

Geopolitical situation

Conflict situation:

1. The pro Russian local authorities said that Ukrainian troops tried to attack Russian positions in the Beryslav region of Kherson State, but were repulsed.

2. The authorities of the pro Russian state of Kherson said that the Ukrainian army was attacking in the Snigslievka area, and the Russian army was fighting fiercely with it and holding the defensive line.

3. Zelensky: Russian troops launch dozens of attacks in Donetsk area every day and suffer “abnormally high losses”.

4. Ukraine denied being pressured by the West to soften its negotiating position with Russia.

5. Zelensky is seeking to extend the mobilization order and martial law order.

6. According to satellite news reports, Russia and the United States hope to hold talks in the coming weeks to discuss the resumption of inspections of nuclear weapons sites in accordance with the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

Sanctions:

On the 8th local time, the Russian government announced that it had approved sanctions against 74 companies from Bulgaria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, Slovakia, Montenegro, Poland, the United Kingdom and the United States, and prohibited them from conducting military and technical cooperation transactions.

Energy situation:

1. News source: The European Commission told countries at the seminar on Monday that there was no way to set a ceiling on the price of natural gas as required by EU leaders at the previous summit.

2. The State Electric Power Corporation of Ukraine announced that on the 8th, it would implement an emergency power outage in 7 states, and implement a system of alternating power outages throughout Ukraine.

3. Prime Minister Shimegar of Ukraine said that the power supply in the capital Kiev and other places is difficult. In addition to the attack on the power supply system, it cannot be ruled out that the water supply and heating system may be further hit.

4. Zelensky: In 14 regions, including Kiev, about 4 million people have no power supply under stable rather than emergency conditions.

5. Turkey said that it has begun to pay part of Russia's natural gas expenses in rubles.

Institutional perspective

1. Goldman Sachs：The Goldman Sachs equity analyst team lowered the earnings growth forecast of the S&P 500 index by the end of 2024, because there are too many unfavorable factors that may continue to drag down corporate profit margins.

2. SOCIETE GENERALE：Short sterling against yen may be a more attractive trading strategy.

3. MUFG：It is too early for the US dollar to remain weak.

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