Mohicans markets：MHM Today News

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October 17, 2022 - Fundamentals Reminder

☆ At 08:30, the Federal Reserve of Australia released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting.

☆ At 17:00, Germany announced the ZEW economic climate index in October, and the euro area announced the ZEW economic climate index in October.  

☆ At 21:15, the United States announced the monthly rate of industrial output in September.

☆ At 22:00, the US released the NAHB real estate market index in October. 

☆ At 04:30 the next day, the United States announced the API crude oil inventory for the week of October 14.

☆ At 05:30 the next day, the Federal Reserve Kashkari delivered a speech on economic issues.

Market Overview

—— Source: jin10&Bloomberg

On Monday,October 17, the UK announced the withdrawal of most of the tax reduction policies, which boosted market sentiment. The UK bond yield fell about 40 basis points collectively, driving the European and American long bond yields to fall generally, and the European and American stock markets to rise together. As risk sentiment rose, the dollar index fell below the 113 and 112 levels one after another in the session, closing at 112, a sharp drop of 1.068% to 112.11. Non US currencies made a collective counter attack and generally rose by more than 1%.

Sterling rose as much as 2.4% against the US dollar, breaking three levels of 1.12, 1.13 and 1.14 in the session. However, the dollar rose to 149 against the yen, a new high since 1990.

With the fall of US dollar and US bond yields, spot gold and silver stopped falling for three days. Spot gold surged to 1668.30 ahead of the US market, then fell below 1650, closing up 0.08% slightly at 1648.93 US dollars/ounce; The spot silver once approached the 19 mark, reaching 18.93 as high as possible, but then fell back and finally ended up 1.47% at 18.67 USD/oz.

Concerns about economic recession persist, and crude oil continues to decline. WTI crude oil closed 0.57% lower at 85.87 dollars/barrel; Brent crude oil closed 1.26% lower at USD 91.71/barrel. US natural gas futures once fell below US $6/million British fever, falling to a three-month low. European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures fell nearly 10%, and British natural gas fell more than 13%.

US stocks opened higher and closed higher, with the Dow rising 1.86%, the Nasdaq up 3.43% and the S&P 500 up 2.65%. Popular Chinese stocks and large technology stocks generally strengthened. Bilibili closed up about 8%, Tesla closed up about 7%, Netflix closed up about 6%, and Alibaba closed up about 5%. Bank of America and Bank of New York Mellon reported better than expected in the third quarter, which led to a collective surge in bank stocks.

European stocks gained collectively, and Germany's DAX30 index rose 1.7%; The FTSE 100 closed 0.9% higher; France's CAC40 index rose 1.83%; Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed 1.77% higher; Spain's IBEX35 index closed 2.34% higher; Italy's FTSE MIB closed 1.86% higher.

Market Focus

——Source: jin10 & Bloomberg

1、The British fiscal plan to complete a 180-degree reversal, the British Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt announced that the income tax cut plan will be canceled indefinitely, and the implementation time of the energy support plan will be shortened from two years to next April.

2、Russia will lower oil export tariff to $42.7 per ton from November 1.

3、Meissner, CEO of Credit Suisse investment banking business, will quit; Credit Suisse investment banking sector attracts the interest of investment and acquisition from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, Credit Suisse was up nearly 9% during the day.

4、The EU plans to take out up to 40 billion euros ($39.2 billion) from the EU budget to support individuals and businesses struggling to cope with high oil prices.

5、The Bank of Canada survey showed that Canadian consumer inflation expectations hit a record high, business confidence fell the most since 2020, and the risk of recession exceeded 50%.

6、U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Total oil production in the U.S. shale region increased by about 103,000 barrels per day to 9.104 million barrels per day in November (up 127,000 barrels per day in October), which will rise to the highest level since March 2020.

7、Rosneft is expected to be delisted from the London Stock Exchange from November 14.

8、Exxon Mobil said on Monday that the company has withdrawn completely from the Russian market after Russia “unilaterally terminated” its interest in “Sakhalin-1”.

9、A representative of the French General Union said that workers are now in Total's multiple refineries and storage centers to expand the strike protests, demanding that the company can agree to pay raises.

10、London Metal Exchange (LME) lowered the margin of SND to $3,265, previously $3,755, effective after the close of trading on October 21, 2022.

11、The European Union plans to launch new intervention measures in the natural gas market this week. The European Commission will propose the implementation of a dynamic price cap on natural gas and a limit on the range of single-day fluctuations in the price of natural gas futures trading.

12、The U.S. White House: will continue to impose sanctions on Russia and Iran's arms trade. Do not see the Iran nuclear deal can be reached soon.

Institutional Perspective

——MHMarkets ETA

1. Goldman Sachs: the dollar against the yen will follow the performance of U.S. Treasury yields and rise to 150

2. Holland International: Swiss central bank will probably prevent the U.S. and Switzerland rose below parity

3. Goldman Sachs: U.S. Treasury yields higher, and the dollar may rise to 150 against the yen

4. Credit Agricole insists on bearish pound

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