Mohicans markets：Gold Short-term Face Direction Choice Crude PMI Worsens Recession Expectations

Key Data 

Fundamentals Overview

Spot gold rose above the pivot point of 1750 during the European session and went above the 1760 mark. The primary resistance is 1769.86 On Thursday August 25. The trend of spot silver is similar, and the first upward target is 19.64. WTI crude oil fluctuated in a narrow range and found some support at the pivot point of 94.71. The US dollar index fell below the pivot point of 108.70, breaking the 108 mark at one point, and the primary support was 107.22.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on August 25, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical View

ONE · Technical Level · International Gold

1780 Bullish decrease but the stock is large, bearish decrease slightly, resistance and long target

1760~1772 Bullish increase greatly but the stock is large, the bearish increases slightly and the stock is large, the long target

1751 Bullish increase and the stock is large, bearish decrease with stock but bulls prevail, support level

1725~1740 Bullish increase slightly and the stock is large, bearish increase and the stock is large, the short target

Technical Analysis

Yesterday's durable goods data went bad, pushing gold up to 1756 in the short-term and then falling back quickly. However, the Asian session began to slowly stand up again on Thursday. The wave in the morning is supported by trading volume, and the inflow of gold futures positions is relatively large. It is not ruled out that funds will start to enter the market for the future market, but after all, the volume of the Asian market is limited. If there is a larger trading volume in the European and US markets, the price of gold may still fall back to around 1754, 1749 or even 1745 at a high level. At present, the funds have a relatively strong support consensus on 1745-1747, and believe that this is the boundary between long and short sentiment. If gold does not fall below this level, the upward momentum is expected to be maintained, otherwise it may return to the shock range of 1745-1730.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 25th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO · Technical Level · Spot Silver

20 Bullish slightly increased and large stock, bearish decreased, long target 

19.7 Bullish decrease, bearish unchanged, next resistance level 

19.5 Bullish reduced but the stock is large, the bearishness is reduced but the stock is large, the rebound target and resistance

19.10-19.25 Bullish increase and bulls prevail, bearish decrease, support level 

19 Bullish decrease, bearish decreased but there is stock, and the support force has weakened 

18.75 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease sharply, important support

Technical Analysis

On Wednesday, silver followed gold to a volatile market, but today's opening continued the previous upward momentum and successfully stood at 19.25, the long target of yesterday.

On the whole, the bulls in the 19.05-19.25 range have continuously added new bets, with strong support. However, a lot of long funds have left near 19, and the support force has weakened. Therefore, 19 will be the last level of continuous support. If it falls below, the silver price may further test the low level of 18.72-18.75.

In the upward direction, there is a large bullish stock near 19.45-19.5, and long funds have left the market, which is the rebound target and resistance.

 And the next resistance is at 19.7. If it breaks above, it may look to the long target of 20, and bet on call options here big.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 25th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE · Technical Level · US Crude Oil

100 Bullish decrease but large stock, bearish increase slightly, short-term long target 

97.5 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged and there is stock, secondary resistance 

96 Bullish increase, bearish increase slightly, first resistance 

95 Bullish decrease but there is stock, bearish increase , the previous target and the first support 

93 Bullish increase, bearish increase in equal amount, long-short boundary

92 Bullish decrease, bearish increase, downside action can expand 

90 Bullish increase, bearish increase greatly, short target

Technical Analysis

Yesterday, crude oil stabilized at 93 support, and after a brief competition in the 93.5-94 range, it went up to complete the short-term long target. There are signs of bulls leaving the market near the current price, and a small number of bears are betting on the downside. The top 96-97.5 call option bets are intensive, the two intraday resistances. Once it breaks through, it is expected to see the long target in the early stage of 100, but the call options here have signs of leaving the market, and the upward momentum has weakened. 101.5-102.5 has dense bulls entering the market, which is the medium-term bullish target range.

Below the current price, although the bulls at 95 have a stock advantage, there are many departures, and the support is weakened. If crude oil loses the support, it may fall back to the 93 long-short competition point. 92 has new put options coming in, with bears targeting 90.

On the whole, among the points where the bulls had an advantage in the early stage, there were signs of some bulls leaving the market. The bears began to bet slightly near the current price, and the short-term still needs to be alert to the risk of callbacks.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 25th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR ·  Technical Level · EURUSD

1.01-1.0125 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, long target, resistance area

1.0050 Bullish sharply increase, bearish slightly increase, long target 

1.00 bullish increase, bearish decrease but stock is large, resistance 

0.9950-0.9975 bullish increase, bearish increase in equal amounts, key intra-day support area

Technical Analysis

On Wednesday, EURUSD continued its downward movement in the Asian and European markets, with the overall trend in line with yesterday‘s report tips. It hit a low of 0.9910 in the U.S. opening session and then quickly pulled up, but failed to break parity levels. It started to move higher at the opening of today’s session after retracing, and is currently testing around the parity level. Options changes were dominated by an increase in calls, concentrating  above 0.9975. There is also a fair amount of put options increasing at this level, constituting a long-short contention level. With a successful break above this level already, it needs to watch for further rally momentum in Europe and the US. There is still a pressure on the upside movement as there is still a large stock of puts at the parity level. Breakthrough in the case of rebound targets 1.0050, 1.01-1.0125. If Europe and the United States to re-open below 0.9950, you need to be alert to the risk of renewed pressure. But below the new bearish options are limited, so expecting to 0.99 integer level is still expected to hold.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 25. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE · Technical Level · GBPUSD

1.195 bullish unchanged, bearish sharply reduce, resistance weaken 

1.19 bullish sharply increase, bearish unchanged, long target and resistance 

1.185-1.187 bullish slightly increase, bearish increase, resistance range 

1.18 bullish increase, bearish increase, weak support 

1.175 bullish unchanged, bearish reduce, support 

1.17 bullish increase, bearish reduce, short target

Technical Analysis

On Wednesday, GBPUSD moved lower ahead of the US session, but held 1.1750 support, after which it oscillated to the upside. Today‘s opening extended the rally momentum and is poised to test the key 1.1850 level hinted at in yesterday’s report.

Options changes mainly show a concentration of long bets on the upside and more conservative bearish bets. The key intraday resistance range remains at 1.185-1.187. 1.19 has a large short inventory, but 491 calls are flowing in to bet on an upside breakout, constituting a long target, and a breakout could focus on further upside action. 1.195-1.1970 is still a long-short contention range from an inventory perspective, but 149 puts are leaving at 1.1950, weakening resistance.

The lower side is concerned with the defense of 1.18 support. There are new long entries to provide support, but bearish options inventory prevails. A break below would risk further downside. The new support moved slightly up to 1.1770, and the overall bearish options did not move too much, and the short-term decline is expected to be limited.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 25. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX · Technical Level · AUDUSD

0.71-0.7125 bullish increase and stock is large, bearish unchanged, long target 

0.7 bullish options unchanged but stock is large, bearish decrease, long target 

0.69 bullish unchanged, bearish increase and stock is large, key intra-day support 

0.685 bullish unchanged, bearish unchanged and stock is large, fall back to the first target 

0.68 bullish unchanged, bearish slightly decrease but stock is large, short target

Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar broke above 0.695 in Asian trading with the weaker the U.S. dollar, but whether it can get back above 0.7 in the medium term is still key. The Australian dollar rebound upside target in the short term located around 0.7, where there are still many stock long bets. A further break above may look to long targets of 0.705 and 0.71. 0.69 will be the first support for a pullback due to the large stock of bearish options if the upside slows. A break below 0.69 may continue to test the previous short target at 0.685 and 0.68.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 25. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranties or representations about this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material. The features of MHMarkets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the MHMarkets website. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

Mohicans Markets, (Abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Maihui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.