Mohicans markets："Horrible Data" + The Fed Meeting’s Minutes, the Market Long and Short War Kicked Off

Key Data

Fundamentals Overview

On Wednesday,Aug,17,spot gold surged higher and fell below the pivot point of 1776.49 in Asian trading. After hitting the intraday low during the session, it rebounded slightly, so watch for the market to return above the pivot point again afterwards. Spot silver erased all intraday gains, with primary support focused on 19.85. WTI Crude Oil is testing first support at 86.67 after hitting resistance around the pivot point at 87.63. The dollar index broke above the pivot point and if it can break 106.90, it is expected to open further upside.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on August 17, 2022, Beijing time. 

Technical View

ONE · Technical Level · International Gold

1792 Wave Resistance

1782-1783 The bullish increase and the stock is large, the bearishness remains unchanged, and it is also the double top resistance of the hourly line

1778 Bullish increase and large stock, bearish small increase and large stock, flat line resistance

1774 Asia-Europe plate support

1771-1769 Front Support for Terrorist Data

Technical Analysis

Gold,as we expected yesterday,rallied after a false breakout near 1775.1774-1776 support can continue to be a concern. At the moment,gold is still dominated by short term fluctuations.The decline in positions indicates that medium and long term funds are still not entering,and with the relatively dense distribution of resistance above,it may be necessary to wait for the release of horrible data before there is a chance to break through the resistance.If the resistance is still unable to break through,and the funds have no interest in entering,gold prices may continue to mainly consolidate.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 17th.This strategy is a day strategy,please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO ·Technical Level · Spot Silver

20.75-20.90 Bullish increase, bearish slightly reduced, long target and resistance 

20.50 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged, resistance 

20.10-20.25 Bullish increase， bearish increase, long and short contention, oscillation range

20 Bullish increase, bearish increase, key support 

19.75-19.80  Bullish decrease, bearish increase, short target area 

19.65-19.70 Bullish increase, see unchanged, support

Technical Analysis

Spot silver trading volume is low and still following golds trend. Silver regained support at 20 after falling with gold yesterday. Currently testing 20.25 before retreating,the 20.10-20.25 area is attracting simultaneous bullish and bearish bets,and could fall into a shakeout under a long-short contention. Focus on long or short targets after the break,with significant new bullish options at the 20 integer level expected to provide strong support.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 17th.This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE · Technical Level · US Crude Oil

92 Bullish increase and large stock, bearish increase, rebound target and resistance level

90 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, rebound first target 

88-88.5 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, first resistance 

86 Bullish increase, bearish increase, short-term support 

85 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease, strong support 

83 The bullishness remains unchanged, the bearishness increases significantly and the stock is large, and the previous short target

Technical Analysis

Crude oil completed short covering as scheduled yesterday, and after reaching the key 90 level, it quickly turned down again and stopped the decline in the second half of the US session. From the perspective of the overall flow of option funds, yesterday's options changed from the previous short position increase, with call options increasing and put options leaving the market. Below the current price, the early short targets such as 85 and 83 all have put options to leave the market, with strong support. And above the current price, there are call options Masukura at 88-89, 90, 92 and other positions, of which 88-88.5 is the first. This resistance is expected to stabilize and test the first rebound target of 89.5-90, and the next key level is 92, which may require US disk data support to reach this point.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 17th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR · Technical Level · EURUSD

1.04-1.0450 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged, bullish target zone 

1.0350 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, bullish target 

1.03 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, bullish target 

1.0250 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged, bullish target 

1.02 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, bullish target 

1.0175 Bullish increase, bearish increase, intraday key level 

1.0150 Bullish unchanged, see decrease, support level

1.0125 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, support level 

1.01 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, strong support

Technical Analysis

On Tuesday, EUR/USD broke below 1.0150 in the European session, rebounded after testing 1.0122, and re-tested the 1.02 resistance level after the US session opened, and fell into a narrow range after failure. From the perspective of options changes, Europe and the United States broke below 1.0150 on Tuesday but did not reach the 1.01 target. The bearish funds showed obvious differences between 1.01 and 1.02. If Europe and the United States can stand above 1.0175 again, it is expected to eliminate short-term bearish pressure. The breakthrough of the 1.02 resistance level, although the bearish funds are reduced here, but the huge stock is still expected to constitute an upward resistance. After the breakthrough, the bulls target is 1.0250. Above 1.03 is also dominated by an increase in call options, but considering the high stock of put options between 1.03-1.0350, it is expected to be difficult to achieve a breakthrough. On the other hand, if Europe and the United States cannot effectively break through 1.0175, it means that the rebound momentum is weak, and you can pay attention to the possibility of low-level shocks.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 17th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE · Technical Level · GBPUSD

1.2250 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged but huge stock, bullish target, resistance 

1.22 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged but huge stock, bullish target, resistance 

1.2150 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged but huge stock, bullish target, resistance

1.2120 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged, it is expected to turn into support after the breakthrough

1.2050-1.2070 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, key support area

Technical Analysis

On Tuesday, the pound against the dollar rebounded after testing 1.20 twice, breaking through the key 1.2070 level, and fell into shock after testing the 1.2120 resistance level.

The job market data released yesterday and the inflation data released today show that inflation pressure in the UK remains high, and the Bank of England has the need to further maintain interest rate hikes, but the prospect of rate hikes has limited boost to the pound amid a gloomy economic outlook. From the perspective of options changes, 141 call options were added at 1.2120. After the inflation data was released, the pound and the US briefly broke through this level, and then fell back quickly after approaching 1.2150, indicating that the market has not bought into the expectation of raising interest rates, and it is more considering the prospect that the economy may deteriorate further. During the day, we will focus on the defense of the 1.2050-1.2070 support area. A drop below this level may invalidate this short-term rebound. However, considering that there is no willingness to bet on the put options below, it is expected to limit the decline.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 17th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX · Technical Level · AUDUSD

0.71-0.7125 Bullish increase and large stock, bearish unchanged, long target 

0.705 Bullish unchanged and large stock, bearish unchanged, resistance 

0.7 Bullish increase and large stock, bearish unchanged, key support 

0.695 Bullish unchanged, bearish slightly increase, support

0.6875-0.69 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, the first target of bears

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD tested the 0.699-0.7 support twice yesterday and this morning. From the perspective of options changes, there is a clear boundary between long and short positions above and below 0.6975. The market may expect the Australian dollar to experience greater volatility. Both long and short positions are betting, and there is no sign of leaving the position. 0.705 and 0.7-0.7125 are the two bullish targets near the current price, and there is a large stock of call options, that is, bulls are betting that the Australian dollar will return to its recent highs. On the other hand, we need to pay attention to the key support of 0.7 below. If it breaks below, we will see the first support of 0.695. Below the 0.6875-0.69 range, there are intensive short bets, implying that the short funds are preparing for the continued breakdown.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 17th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. Mohicans Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. Mohicans Markets makes no warranties or representations regarding this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, Mohicans Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material.The features of Mohicans Markets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the Mohicans Markets website and should be considered before deciding to deal with these products. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. Mohicans Markets recommends that you seek independent advice.

Mohicans Markets, (Abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Mai hui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.