Mohicans markets：Gold 'bearish engulfing' Eyes on Important Support Crude Oil Bears Turns To the Geopolitical Situation Again

Key Data

Fundamentals Overview

On Tuesday, August 16, spot gold in the Asian session was under pressure below the pivot point at 1783.26, and the first support was at 1771.68. Spot silver was also in a bearish trend, hitting an intraday low and then rebounding. It is currently testing the first resistance at 20.21. WTI crude oil fell below the pivot point of 88.65. The US dollar index finished higher and fell, or found support at 106.47.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on August 16, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical View

ONE · Technical Level · International Gold

1804 Upward Trend Line Resistance

1785 Long and short boundary

1785-1771 Shock interval

1775 Critical Support

1754 Supported by the previous downtrend line, the daily M20 position

Technical Analysis

Spot gold fell by $30 on Monday, and the short target of 1775 has been reached. However, since the gold futures positions are still decreasing, it shows that yesterday was still dominated by short-term fund clearance, and gold needs to continue to pay attention to the possibility of low-level fluctuations. Specifically, put options continue to increase positions near 1775. Although there is support here, it cannot be ruled out that it will repeatedly test for support or even false breakthroughs. There is resistance in the 1785 and 1796-1806 ranges, and if it cannot be broken through, it will be difficult to form a sustained upward momentum. The call options above the current price are mainly to lighten up positions, and institutions are not optimistic about the momentum of the sharp rise in the day.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 16th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO ·Technical Level · Spot Silver

21 Bullish decrease but the stock is large, bearish unchanged, long target and resistance

20.75 Bullish increase, bearish increase, long target 

20.25-20.4 Bullish increase, bearish increase slightly, bullish target and resistance 

20 Bullish increase, bearish increase, still support 

19.75 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, support at 

19.5 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, support

Technical Analysis

After silver and gold fell synchronously on Monday, the Asian market performance on Tuesday was weaker than gold. Coupled with the reduction in open interest and the increase in trading volume, the price of silver could hardly rise independently. It is worth noting that silver options show that 20.25-20.4 is a long target and resistance, and 20.42 is also a resistance that needs attention in the day. After standing, silver may recover some of its upward momentum. If it cannot stand firm, silver still needs to be alert to low volatility.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 16th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE ·  Technical Level · US Crude Oil

95-96.5 Mid-line resistance 

93.6 Last Friday's Asian plate bottom, the third intraday resistance 

92.8 Last Friday's US plate resistance, intraday secondary resistance 

91-day first resistance 

89 Asia-Europe plate resistance 

87-87.5 The key support after the nuclear agreement is reached 

85 Below the short target 

82-83 support area

Technical Analysis

Crude oil was suppressed by demand on Friday, and maintained a unilateral downward trend before the US market. Judging from the second target option of 87 shorts mentioned yesterday, the put options above 87 left the market evenly, but they did not collect profits at a certain price. It can be seen that the rebound resistance is still not small. The first resistance in the Asian-European session is at 89, and the key resistance in the day is at the 90 mark. This is the first short target in the early stage. There are many bullish positions in call options, so be wary of short covering. Below the current price, bears are betting on a move down to 83, but until there, the bullish stock at 85 will provide relatively key support. Overall, the downside action is not as strong as yesterday.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 16th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR · Technical Level · EURUSD

1.03 Bullish increase, bearish decrease slightly but the stock is huge, resistance level 

1.0250 bullish increase greatly, bearish decrease, long key position, breakout focus on upward momentum 

1.02 bullish slightly increase, bearish increase, resistance 

1.0150 bullish unchanged, bearish increase, Bearish target 

1.01 bullish unchanged, bearish reduced, bearish target, support level 

1.0050 bullish unchanged, bearish greatly reduced, key support

Technical Analysis

On Monday, under the pressure of a higher dollar, the euro fell all the way to around 1.0150 before it stabilized and fell into shock. From the perspective of options changes, there is no obvious long-short bet near the current price. If 1.0150 falls, the support will be 1.01. From the perspective of stock, this is also the short target position, followed by 1.0050. If 1.0050 breaks below, then need to be alert to the expansion of downward pressure, and Europe and the United States have the risk of testing parity again. On the other hand, if Europe and the United States want to achieve a rebound, they will face the first resistance at 1.02, which is expected to be a bearish defensive position. If it breaks through, it is expected to ease the downward pressure. The bullish target looks at 1.0250, and if it stabilizes, you can focus on further upward momentum.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 16th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE ·Technical Level · GBPUSD

1.22-1.2220 bullish decrease, bearish unchanged, resistance area 

1.2120 bullish decrease, bearish unchanged, resistance level 

1.21 bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease, long target

1.2070 bullish increase, bearish equal increase, long and short competition, key level 

1.20 bullish increase, bearish unchanged, support level

Technical Analysis

On Monday, the pound broke below 1.21 in the European session and reached 1.2050 smoothly. After stepping back to 1.21 in the US session, the pound fell again and stopped falling near 12050, falling into shock.

From the perspective of options changes, 42 call and put options were added at 1.2070 at the same time, forming a trend of long and short competition, which is expected to constitute a key intraday level. Breaking this level can further focus on the long target of 1.21. At 1.2120, the call options decrease, indicating that 1.21- 1.2120 range bulls are still divided, which is expected to limit upside momentum, and even if it can break through, it faces resistance at 1.2150, where there is a huge stock of put options.Even if they can break through, they will face resistance from 1.2150, where there is a huge stock of put options.

On the other hand, below 1.2070, bears show no sign of continuing aggressive bets. First of all, we still pay attention to the support of 1.2050. If it breaks below this level, we will look at 1.20. If it falls below 1.20, it means that the double top formed by the pound and the United States is formed near 1.2275.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 16th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX · Technical Level · AUDUSD

0.71 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease, rebound target 

0.705 bullish unchanged, bearish slightly increased, resistance 

0.70 bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, support 

0.695 bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, support 

0.69-0.6925 bullish unchanged, bearish increase, short target

Technical Analysis

Australia and the United States broke through the lower edge of the 0.709 range yesterday and then started a unilateral downward move, directly reaching the 0.7 short target, which also increased the difficulty of intraday operations. From the option point of view, the put options appeared to lighten their positions at 0.7, which weakened the momentum of further short-term break down. At the same time, the 0.69-0.6925 put options increased and became the next short target. During the period 0.695 has a certain supporting role. In addition, at the key level of 0.71 on Monday, nearly 1,200 call options were added, which is speculated to be a mid-line hedging fund, and the short-term impact may be limited.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 16th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. Mohicans Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. Mohicans Markets makes no warranties or representations regarding this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, Mohicans Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material.The features of Mohicans Markets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the Mohicans Markets website and should be considered before deciding to deal with these products. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. Mohicans Markets recommends that you seek independent advice.

Mohicans Markets, (Abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Mai hui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.