Mohicans markets：Gold Bulls are Still Strong Despite Resistance at 1800, and Crude Supply Improvement Depends on Inflation

Key Data

Fundamentals Overview

On Monday, August 15, spot gold in the Asian session fell below the pivot point of 1791.41, and if it breaks below 1786.94, it may further open up the downside. Spot silver fell to the first support of 20.51. WTI crude oil was under pressure below the pivot point of 92.37 and fell downwards Test the first support at 90.44. The US dollar index is approaching the 106 mark, and the first upward target is 106.17.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on August 15, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical View

ONE · Technical Level · International Gold

The bullishness of the 1865-1870 position is reduced but the stock is large, the bearishness remains unchanged, and it is still a long target

1827-1835 The bullishness decreases but the stock is large, the bearishness increases, and the intraday strong resistance is also a bullish target

1810 Asian resistance

1804-1800, the bullishness is reduced but the stock is large, the bearishness is reduced, the long-short boundary

1793 Second Support

1786 Band Support

1775 Critical Support

Technical Analysis

Gold rebounded greatly on Friday, but fell again around 1804 in the Asian

session on Monday. In addition, the increase in the main force and total open interest was relatively small, and the trading volume was relatively sluggish,

suggesting that the current gold price is still dominated by short-term

fluctuations. direction.

The call options are slightly reduced above the current price of gold, and the put options are increased below the current price, which may put downward

pressure on the gold price in the short term. If 1793 is broken, the 4-hour

line may enter the consolidation of 1793-1786 again. At the same time, it is

also necessary to pay attention to the support-resistance conversion at the

previous resistance position of 1775.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 15th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO · Technical Level · Spot Silver

21-21.25 Bullish increase and large stock, bearish unchanged, still a long target 

20.75 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, still a key resistance 

20.5 Bullish decrease, bearish increase, intraday resistance 

20.2 Bullish decrease, bearish slightly increased, weak support 

20 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease sharply, strong support

Technical Analysis

Silver rose in sync with gold on Friday, but fell from a high level since the Asian session on Monday, approaching the intraday support of 20.6. Due to the sharp decrease in silver trading volume on Friday, it suggests that the rallyon Friday may not be reliable, and the risk of silver falling may be greater than that of gold. At least it needs to stand at the intraday resistance of 20.73before it can hope to recover its upward momentum. The support below the current price of silver is relatively sparse, and the support at 20.2 is relatively weak. The fluctuation of spot silver may be too large, and investors need to do a good job in risk management.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 15th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE · Technical Level · US Crude Oil

resistance 93.6 bullish increase greatly, bearish basically unchanged, resistance 

92.5 bullish increase and the stock is large, bearish decrease, short resistance 

90 bullish decrease, bearish increase greatly and the stock is large, the first Callback target and support 

87 Bullish decrease, bearish increase greatly, short second target and key support 

85 Bullish increase, bearish decrease greatly, previous support

Technical Analysis

Although oil prices basically gave up the previous day's gains on Friday, the situation of short-term selling pressure and mid- and long-term support remained unchanged for the time being. Before the mid-line resistance of 95-96.5 broke through, the bulls mainly focused on short-term funds. From the perspective of options, the current price is dominated by the sharp increase of put options, and the first key point is at the 90 mark, which is the first short target to fall back. At the same time, there are also many new put options in 87, which are the second target of shorts, and this is also the key support in the early stage. Above the current price, both 92 and 95 have a small number of call options to increase their positions. Oil prices may have rebound momentum but the resistance is relatively intensive. In addition to the concentrated bets of 92 and 95 of options, 93 also has certain resistance.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 15th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR · Technical Level · EURUSD

1.05 bullish increase, bearish decrease, bullish target 

1.0450 bullish increase, bearish unchanged but huge stock, bullish target and resistance 

1.04 bullish decrease, bearish increase, upside momentum weakened, resistance 

1.03 bullish decrease, bearish increase, resistance 

1.02 bullish Decrease, bearish increase greatly, breakout may expand downside momentum.

Technical Analysis

On Friday, the US dollar index stabilized and rebounded near the 105 support, and the euro against the dollar broke below the 1.03-1.0275 range, building a double top near 1.0360. From the perspective of options changes, the differences between the long and short sides are more obvious, but the new bets of the bulls are far from the current price, and it is expected to prepare for the medium-term trend. In the short-term, the bulls near the current price have signs of leaving the market, the bullishness at 1.04 has decreased, and the upward momentum has been weakened. At 1.0350, both bullish and bearish bets have also left the market simultaneously, and the markets attention has declined. A small number of put options have been added to the key range of 1.0275-1.03, and it is expected to re-form the resistance area. The bottom focus is on the short target of 1.02, where a large number of put options may expand the downward momentum, and the short target will further look at the vicinity of 1.01.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 15th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE · Technical Level · GBPUSD

1.23-1.2350 bullish increase, bearish unchanged, long target zone

1.22 bullish small increase, bearish increase, key resistance 

1.2150 bullish decrease, bearish increase, resistance 

1.21 bullish unchanged, bearish increase, bear target 

1.2050 bullish unchanged, bearish increase, bear target 

1.1970 bullish unchanged, bearish increase, bear target

Technical Analysis

Last Friday, the US dollar rebounded at the 105 support level, and the non-US fell under pressure. The pound against the US dollar broke below 1.22, and stabilized and fell into shock after testing the short target of 1.21 in the US market.

From the perspective of options changes, 1.2150 constitutes the first strong positive force, followed by the 1.22 long and short competition, which constitutes the key support for the day. Breaking this level can pay attention to the possibility of the pound and the United States recovering the rebound trend. The long target above is around 1.23.

Below 1.22, it is expected that the pound and the United States are still under pressure and the first short target is 1.21. Considering that the bullish and bearish stocks here are equal, it is expected that this level will also have some support, and the broken position will take advantage of the trend to see 1.2050-1.2070, here is The lower edge of the oscillating range since August is expected to provide strong support.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 15th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX ·  Technical Level · AUDUSD

0.72 bullish unchanged, bearish unchanged, previous upper target 

0.715 bullish decrease, bearish unchanged, resistance 

0.705 bullish increase and the stock is large, bearish increase, support 

0.7 bullish unchanged, bearish increase, short target 

0.695 bullish unchanged, bearish Increase, key support level

Technical Analysis

Australia and the United States gave back Friday's gains in Asian trading today, and are currently at the lower edge of the 0.709 shock range. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the rhythm of commodities and the US dollar. From the point of view of options, after many days of tug-of-war, bears tend to bet on a pullback. Among them, 0.705 and 0.7 have concentrated bets. Among them, 0.705 may provide some support because there are still a lot of stock call options, while the main bet target of shorts is 0.70, where put options increased by nearly 7007. Above the current price, bullish funds are weekly fifth, there is no more action for the time being, and the stock in the previous period is still dominated, that is, if it breaks above 0.715, there will be more momentum.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 15th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. Mohicans Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. Mohicans Markets makes no warranties or representations regarding this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, Mohicans Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material.The features of Mohicans Markets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the Mohicans Markets website and should be considered before deciding to deal with these products. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. Mohicans Markets recommends that you seek independent advice.

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