Abstract:USD/JPY intraday gains above 131.00, highest in 20 years
As USD advances to new highs near 104.20, USD/JPY continues to stay bullish as the three-day upside momentum approaches a two-decade high flashed last month.
In its most recent monetary policy meeting, the BOJ committed to continuing with its easing policy in a bid to manage the economy. Kuroda maintained that he would leave interest rates intact and continue with its asset purchase program. On the contrary, The Fed took a different path last week. In its statement, the bank decided to deliver the biggest rate hike in over 20 years. It also signaled that it would continue hiking interest rates by 50 basis points in the coming meetings. While that planned divergence in the monetary policy of the two banks may continue for the next coming months, the USD/JPY pair is expected to move to 135, the highest level since 2002.
There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US, leaving the USD/JPY pair at the mercy of the USD price dynamics/US bond yields. Apart from this, traders will take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities. The focus, however, would remain glued to the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures on Wednesday.
In the short term, the pair‘s momentum has improved further and a clear break of 131.225 would open the way for the USD to advance further to 131.65. Overall, only a breach of 130.00 (’strong support level was at 129.5) would indicate that upward momentum has eased.
The yen weakens further as Fed Chair Powell's cautious remarks influence market sentiment. USD/JPY remains around 161, with resistance at 162, driven by Powell's comments and upcoming US CPI data. June's lower-than-expected PPI in Japan adds pressure on the yen. The sentiment is bullish for USD/JPY, supported by strong US economic indicators. Key influences include Federal Reserve signals, US economic data, and Japan's PPI. Potential movement for USD/JPY could see it testing 162 resistance.
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5 in June, below expectations, but the dollar rebounded after a Supreme Court ruling in favor of Trump. Investors await U.S. job data for hints on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Despite rising U.S. bond yields, gold remains strong near $2300. If it breaks above the 50-day moving average of $2337, it could reach $2390-$2400, but faces resistance at $2339.21. A drop below $2323.29 would weaken the bullish signal; watch for a breakout in the $2291.
The yen continues to weaken against major currencies, with USD/JPY potentially climbing above 165. Japan's officials express concerns, hinting at potential intervention. Stable domestic indicators fail to support the yen amid robust USD performance.
The USD/JPY pair is predicted to increase based on both fundamental and technical analyses. Fundamental factors include a potential easing of aggressive bond buying by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which could lead to yen depreciation. Technical indicators suggest a continuing uptrend, with the possibility of a correction once the price reaches the 157.7 to 160 range.