Global markets have once again returned to a key theme: oil → inflation → Fed → yields → dollar.Persistently high oil prices are beginning to reshape global interest rate expectations. Brent crude is currently hovering around US$105–106, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to approximately 5.24% and the DXY has reached 101.20—near a two-month high. Markets now see a 70%–73% probability of another Fed rate hike in October.🔎 Key market focuses right now:💵 DXY: around 101.20 — dollar strength is no longer driven solely by safe-haven status; it is also supported by high US yields and expectations of a more hawkish Fed.🇯🇵 USD/JPY: around 157.45 — fundamentals still favor the dollar, but as the pair approaches the 160 zone, the risk of Japanese intervention rises.🇪🇺 EUR/USD: around 1.1360, pressured by the US yield advantage and rising European energy costs.🇬🇧 GBP/USD: around 1.3240 — it is not necessarily that sterling has suddenly weakened, but rather that the dollar is currently exceptionally strong.🛢️ Oil: the primary focus has shifted from mere demand to when the Strait of Hormuz will truly return to normal operations. If the route stabilizes, the geopolitical premium could drop rapidly.🥇 Gold: fell nearly 4% to around US$4,117, despite the ongoing conflict. For now, pressure from real yields and a strong dollar outweighs safe-haven demand. 📌 Moving forward, the market will focus on JOLTS, PCE, NFP, Core CPI, developments in US-Iran and Hormuz negotiations, as well as Japan's reaction should USD/JPY approach the 160 level.📅 Key data to watch today — September 29, 2026.🇦🇺 12:30 — RBA Interest Rate DecisionThe market expects the rate to rise from 4.35% to 4.60%.🇺🇸 22:00 — CB Consumer ConfidenceForecast: 90.1 | Previous: 89.4🇺🇸 22:00 — JOLTS Job OpeningsForecast: 7.230M | Previous: 7.271M💡 Tonight's data has the potential to influence USD sentiment, Fed rate expectations, and market volatility. All times are GMT+8.⏰ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice.