Gold prices are finding steady support as traders bet the Federal Reserve will hold off on interest rate hikes, driven by political uncertainty, a soft labor market, and a general willingness to overlook short-term energy spikes. However, institutional analysts warn that upside momentum remains limited in the near term. ​The main wildcard continues to be the energy market. With persistent tensions in the Persian Gulf threatening oil supplies, a surge in energy prices could easily reignite inflation concerns. If oil spikes significantly, the bar for another Fed rate hike remains surprisingly low, which would force market participants to reprice their policy expectations higher for both this year and next. ​Given the risk of higher interest rates lingering longer, gold is expected to remain stuck in a defined trading range of $4,200 to $4,500 per ounce into early 2027. A more substantial breakout higher isn't anticipated until later that year, when easing inflation, a softer US Dollar, and lower carry costs finally give bullion the green light to rally.