MHMarkets:Pay Attention to the Speeches of Fed Officials

Risk warning:

☆At 15:30, the 2023 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Fed President Evans was interviewed by CNBC. Investors will need to be on the lookout for this hawkish call after three Fed officials have said they need to keep raising interest rates and slow the economy “moderately”.

☆ At 19:30, Fed Chairman Powell attended the meeting, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether he will disclose the policy path of the Fed after that.

☆ At 19:30, European Central Bank President Lagarde participated in a discussion after she said that the European Central Bank needs to continue to raise interest rates and carry out quantitative tightening after interest rate normalization.

☆ At 21:55, St. Louis Fed President Bullard will deliver a speech. Investors need to pay attention to whether it will issue a hawkish call to continue raising interest rates.

Global View - Mainstream Market

On September 26, Monday, Beijing time, spot gold expanded its decline in the U.S. market, and once fell to a low of $1,621.05, and finally closed down 1.3% at $1,622.49 per ounce;

Spot silver was blocked at the $19 mark, and finally closed down 2.78% at $18.34 per ounce.

The U.S. dollar index rose to a high of 114.6 in the Asian session, and then pared some of the gains, and finally closed up 0.97% at 114.11; Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply to close at 3.933%. U.S. Treasuries extended losses after weak 2-year Treasury auctions, with 10-year yields at their highest since April 2010; The yield on the seven-year Treasury note rose 22 basis points to 4.0837%, its highest level since 1993. In terms of crude oil, both oil prices dived sharply during the US session, both fell by more than 3%. WTI crude oil gave up all gains and turned down in the US session, and finally closed down 3.78% at US$76.31 per barrel; Brent crude settled down 3.25% at $83.89 a barrel. U.S. stocks fell for five consecutive trading days, the Dow closed down 1.11%, the S&P 500 closed down 1.03%, and the Nasdaq closed down 0.6%. Most banking stocks, oil and gas stocks, and airline stocks closed lower. Popular Chinese concept stocks bucked the trend and strengthened. New Oriental closed up about 10%, and Li Auto closed up about 6%. European stocks generally closed down. Germany's DAX closed down 0.46% at 12,227.92 points, the UK's FTSE 100 closed up 0.03% at 7,020.95 points, and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 0.18% at 3,342.56 points.

Precious metals and energy market related information

Precious Metals

On September 27, Tuesday, Beijing time, we will focus on this trading day:

21:00 European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, 22:00 Fed vote committee, Boston Fed President Collins delivered a speech on the US economy.

At the heart of the gloom hanging over global markets was the sharp increase in interest rates by the world's major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, last week, leading to concerns about the outlook for economic growth. The dollar's advantage over other currencies has also strengthened due to the relatively optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy.

Crude Oil

On Tuesday, September 27, Beijing time, please note:

The U.S. monthly rate revision Building Permits in August; the U.S. monthly rate initial value of durable goods orders in August; the Federal Reserve Evans gives a speech; the Federal Reserve Bullard delivers a speech; API data will be released at 4:30 on Wednesday.

Bullish Factors Affecting Oil Prices

【Russias views on the possible use of nuclear weapons have not changed】

【The Russian army continues to attack the target of the Ukrainian army, and the Ukrainian army repels the Russian army's attack】

【U.S. Democrats brewing a new bill to build new oil reserves】

【Gas leakage found near the Beixi-2 pipeline operation area】

【EU plans to delay cap on Russian oil prices】

Bearish Factors Affecting Oil Prices

【The probability of a global recession is as high as 98%】

【Worrying that the U.S. economy is in a deep recession, the U.S. stock in a bear market is getting deeper and deeper】

【The dollar continues to rise to suppress oil prices】

Currency Market Related Information

Currency Market

On Monday, September 26, Beijing time, during the day please focus on: 

Chicago Fed President Evans delivers a speech, ECB Vice President Jindos gives a speech, and St. Louis Fed President Bullard delivers a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

According to CMEs “Federal Reserve Watch”: The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points to the range of 3.50%-3.75% in November is 23.8%, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 76.2%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 0%; The probability of a cumulative 100 basis point rate hike by December is 26.6%, the probability of a cumulative 125 basis point rate hike is 69.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 150 basis point rate hike is 0%. The euro and sterling tumbled to fresh 20- and 37-year lows against the dollar on Friday after surveys showed that business activity across the Eurozone and Britain was slumping faster and the economy could enter a recession.

Institutional Market Viewpoint

1. Nomura now expects GBPUSD to fall to parity by end-November

2. Natwest Markets: Chances of GBPUSD falling to parity are rising

3. Oxford Economics: Sterling may hit a record low, and a full-blown sterling crisis is unlikely

4. BCA Research: GBPUSD downside remains, we buy at 1.05

5. Morgan Stanley: A strong dollar may lead to a crisis, and the S&P 500 will fall 13%

Statement | Disclaimer

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Mohicans Markets, (Abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Maihui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.