04/26 Market report

【Dow Jones】

The Fed announced by email on Monday that Chairman Jerome Powell will hold his first face-to-face live press conference since the outbreak, following a two-day policy meeting on May 3 and 4.

After the Fed raised 25 basis points in March, Chairman Powell hinted on April 21 local time that the Fed could raise rates by 0.5 percentage points at its May meeting, and mentioned that a similar rate hike might be needed later to reduce inflation.

The speed of interest rate hikes has been constantly hinted at, and investors are increasingly panicking about the uncertainty of interest rate hikes. This has made the stock market and the bond market less attractive. Alligator shows a death crossover while the KD shows a low-end figure. Both show bearish conditions.

USA30-D1

Resistance point 1: 33800 / Resistance point 2: 34200 / Resistance point 3: 34500

Support point 1: 32800 / support point 2: 32500 / support point 3: 32000

【Japanese Yen】

According to Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun, Kishida said at a press conference held in the evening that in order to raise financial resources for emergency economic countermeasures, a supplementary budget for 2022 with a total amount of about 2.7 trillion yen (about NT$618.5 billion) will be proposed.

To curb the rise in gasoline prices, the original subsidy of up to 25 yen per litre for oil companies will be raised to 35 yen, and the period will be extended to the end of September.

The steep uptrend in USDJPY's daily chart drove the Alligator to a golden cross. The overall change of trend direction is not easy to reverse in the short period of time. The short-term KD shows a death cross but there has not been much pullback. It has been consolidating at the high-end for a period of time.

USDJPY-D1

Resistance point 1: 127.800 / Resistance point 2: 128.200 / Resistance point 3: 128.800

Support point 1: 126.800 / support point 2: 126.200 / support point 3: 125.800

【Gold】

Agence France-Presse reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on Western countries not to underestimate the risk of nuclear war and will continue to negotiate peace with Ukraine. It warned of the outbreak of World War 3 and said that NATO's provision of weapons to Ukraine is equivalent to fighting a proxy war with Russia. The war between Russia and Ukraine is gradually intensifying.

Although it seems that the war between Ukraine and Russia is showing signs of spreading out, the safe-haven demand for gold has not increased by a large amount due to the rising US dollar. Gold is facing a great downward pressure. The KD also shows a low-end figure and this indicates that the short side is quite strong.

XAUUSD-D1

Resistance point 1: 1915.00 / Resistance point 2: 1930.00 / Resistance point 3: 1950.00

Support point 1: 1890.00 / support point 2: 1880.00 / support point 3: 1870.00

【Crude Oil】

According to the Wall Street Journal, tracking website TankerTracker shows that oil exports fell to 1.3 million barrels per day in March after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War. Since April, oil exports from Russian ports to EU member states have risen to an average of 1.6 million barrels per day. Another product data provider, Kpler, also show similar data.

The price of crude oil continues to trade in a consolidated pattern and the volatility is getting tighter. The trading volume is shrinking day by day.

The current information on the supply and demand of crude oil is also becoming harder to interpret. Alligator shows an entanglement while the KD shows a golden cross.

USOIL-D1

Resistance point 1: 103.800 / Resistance point 2: 105.500 / Resistance point 3: 107.200

Support point 1: 101.500 / support point 2: 98.200 / support point 3: 95.800

OnePro Special Analyst

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