A Double Whammy of India: Pandemic Coupled with Recession

India, which now is one of the worst-hit countries in the world, recorded the highest daily number of cases of the coronavirus disease globally at 90,802 last Sunday (Sept. 6), according to the latest figures released by the country's Ministry of Health. With over 4.2 million infections, India has become the country with the second-highest number of cases and ranked third in the number of infections by taking total mortality to over 71,000.

Source: The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare

In terms of the cases by region, active cases are concentrated in five States, among which Maharashtra contributed 26.76% followed by Andhra Pradesh (11.30%), Karnataka (11.25%), Uttar Pradesh (6.98%) and Tamil Nadu (5.83%). Death cases are mainly recorded in Maharashtra (37.10%), followed by Tamil Nadu (10.90%), Karnataka (8.90%), the Capital Delhi (6.40%), Andhra Pradesh (6.20%) and other places.

Distribution of active cases

Distribution of deaths

India's economy has also suffered an enormous blow amid the raging epidemic. According to government figures released on August 31, India's GDP fell sharply by 23.9% y/y in Q2 2020, recording the largest quarterly decline since the first release of quarterly economic data in 1996. It indicates that India has a worst downturn among Asian economies.

Source: MOSPI

Although the signs of outbreaks do not bode well, India is set to resume economic activity as planned and has allowed metro rail operations to restart in a “graded” manner. Many experts of public health warned that easing restrictions and reopening the economy could lead to a vicious cycle of infection disasters.

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