US Dollar May Rise vs Euro if Eurozone Inflation Data Undershoots

US DOLLAR, ECB, EURUSD – TALKING POINTS

US DOLLAR，ECB，EURUSD - TALKING POINTS

• US Dollar may gain vs Euro if Eurozone inflation data misses forecasts

  如果欧元区通胀数据未达预期

• Weak price growth may push Euro lower if ECB rate cut bets increase

  如果欧洲央行降息押注增加，价格疲软可能推动欧元走低

• EURUSD downtrend may accelerate from the ECB and FOMC minutes

  EURUSD下行趋势可能会从欧洲央行和FOMC会议纪要加速

The US Dollar may extend gains vs the Euro if Eurozone inflation data misses estimates and boosts ECB rate cut bets and the prospect of the central bank reintroducing quantitative easing. Economic data out of the Eurozone has been tending to underperform relative to economists‘ expectations. Last week, preliminary German GDP data showed that Europe’s largest economy likely contracted in the second quarter.

如果欧元区通胀数据未达预期并推动欧洲央行降息押注以及中央银行的前景，美元兑欧元可能延续涨势重新引入量化宽松政策。相对于经济学家的预期，欧元区经济数据趋于表现不佳。上周，德国初步GDP数据显示，欧洲最大的经济体可能在第二季度收缩。

A week before that, German ZEW Survey Expectations came in at -44.1. The last time the data hovered at those levels in the past ten years was during the 2008 financial meltdown and the Eurozone debt crisis. If the “steam engine of Europe” continues to slow down, weaker demand will begin to ripple out into other member states and undermine regional price growth.

在此前一周，德国ZEW调查预期为-44.1。上一次数据在过去十年中徘徊在这些水平上是在2008年金融危机和欧元区债务危机期间。如果“欧洲蒸汽机”继续放缓，需求疲软将开始波及其他成员国并破坏区域价格增长。

EURUSD Technical Analysis

EURUSD技术分析

EURUSD is hovering around the lower lip of 16-month descending resistance with a possible floor at 1.1023. A break below this support level with follow-through could trigger a selloff until it hits 1.0950. Looking ahead, Eurozone inflation data may push the pair lower, though the real catalysts for significant price moves will likely be the publication of the ECB and FOMC meeting minutes.

欧元兑美元徘徊在16个月下行阻力的下唇附近，可能下跌至1.1023。通过跟进突破该支撑位可能触发抛售直至触及1.0950。展望未来，欧元区通胀数据可能推动该货币对走低，但重大价格走势的真正催化剂可能是欧洲央行和FOMC会议纪要的公布。

CHART OF THE DAY: EURUSD Aiming at Key Support Level？

每日图表：EURUSD瞄准关键支撑位？