#FTP
1、 Core Analysis Framework: Combining the Three
Don't blindly guess, build on analysis. The analysis is mainly divided into three categories:
1. Technical analysis (core)
This is the most commonly used analysis method for guessing price fluctuations, as it focuses on short-term price movements.
The trend is your friend:
Upward trend: a series of higher highs and lower lows. Look for opportunities to go long (speculate on gains) during a callback.
Downward trend: a series of lower highs and lows. Look for opportunities to short (speculate) during a rebound.
Horizontal oscillation: Prices fluctuate within a specific range. You can guess a rise at the support level and a fall at the resistance level.
Key support and resistance levels:
Support level: The level at which a price drop may encounter buyer support, leading to a halt in the decline and a rebound. When approaching the support level, consider "guessing the rise".
Resistance level: When the price rises, it may encounter pressure from sellers, leading to a decline in the price. When approaching resistance levels, consider "guessing a drop".
These positions can be determined by previous high/low points, moving averages, Fibonacci retracement levels, etc.
Common technical indicators:
Moving averages: such as the 5-period and 20 period moving averages. A golden cross (short term over long term) may be bullish, while a death cross (short term over long term) may be bearish. The price is above the moving average, indicating a bullish trend; Below is empty.
RSI: Relative Strength Index. Usually below 30 is the oversold zone (may rebound and rise, guess the rise), and above 70 is the overbought zone (may rebound and fall, guess the fall).
MACD: The indicator line is above the signal line and positive, indicating high momentum; Conversely, it tends to be empty.
Bollinger Bands: If the price touches the upper limit, it may be overbought (guessing a decline), and if it touches the lower limit, it may be oversold (guessing a rise).
K-line shape:
Learn some key bullish (such as hammerhead line, bullish swallow) and bearish (such as hanging neck line, bearish swallow) candlestick patterns, which are more reliable when they appear at critical positions.
2. Fundamental analysis (providing direction)
Although the fluctuation cycle is short, major fundamental events can trigger severe market volatility.
Pay attention to economic data, such as non farm employment data CPI、GDP、 Interest rate resolutions, etc. These data will greatly affect the strength of the currency.
For example, if the non farm payroll data in the United States is much higher than expected, it usually benefits the US dollar. At this time, the winning rate of guessing a "decline" in trading EUR/USD will increase.
Pay attention to news events such as speeches by central bank governors, geopolitical conflicts, and unexpected events.
Tip: Avoid trading before major data is released, as direction is extremely difficult to determine. It is best to wait for the data to be released and the market to choose its direction before taking advantage of the situation.
3. Market sentiment analysis
Market sentiment is a reflection of collective psychology.
Fear and Greed Index: You can refer to some market sentiment indicators.
Following the trend and going against it: When the market is extremely bullish, be alert to the possibility of reversal (guessing a decline); When the market is extremely bearish, the opposite is true (guessing a rise). But this requires strong judgment and is not suitable for beginners.
2、 Practical trading techniques and strategies
Choose currency pairs with high liquidity:
Main trades include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, etc. These currency pairs have small spreads and relatively standardized trends, making them less susceptible to abnormal manipulation.
Choose an active trading time:
The overlapping trading period has the strongest liquidity, the greatest volatility, and the most opportunities. For example:
London time slot and New York time slot overlap: 8pm to 12pm Beijing time.
Overlap between Asian and London time slots: 3pm to 5pm Beijing time.
Selection of time period:
M1/M5: Ultra short term, very stimulating, but with a lot of noise, easy to make mistakes.
M15/M30: Suitable for most traders, it can capture short-term fluctuations and filter out some false signals.
Suggestion: Start analyzing from the M15 chart and switch to the M5 chart to find entry points.
Simple strategy example:
Trend following strategy: On the 15 minute chart, the price is above the 200 cycle moving average and the RSI is above 50. When waiting for the price to retrace to near the moving average or a small support level, a bullish candlestick pattern (such as a hammer line) appears, and then enters the market to "guess the rise", with a maturity time set at 15 or 30 minutes.
#FTP
1、 Core Analysis Framework: Combining the Three
Don't blindly guess, build on analysis. The analysis is mainly divided into three categories:
1. Technical analysis (core)
This is the most commonly used analysis method for guessing price fluctuations, as it focuses on short-term price movements.
The trend is your friend:
Upward trend: a series of higher highs and lower lows. Look for opportunities to go long (speculate on gains) during a callback.
Downward trend: a series of lower highs and lows. Look for opportunities to short (speculate) during a rebound.
Horizontal oscillation: Prices fluctuate within a specific range. You can guess a rise at the support level and a fall at the resistance level.
Key support and resistance levels:
Support level: The level at which a price drop may encounter buyer support, leading to a halt in the decline and a rebound. When approaching the support level, consider "guessing the rise".
Resistance level: When the price rises, it may encounter pressure from sellers, leading to a decline in the price. When approaching resistance levels, consider "guessing a drop".
These positions can be determined by previous high/low points, moving averages, Fibonacci retracement levels, etc.
Common technical indicators:
Moving averages: such as the 5-period and 20 period moving averages. A golden cross (short term over long term) may be bullish, while a death cross (short term over long term) may be bearish. The price is above the moving average, indicating a bullish trend; Below is empty.
RSI: Relative Strength Index. Usually below 30 is the oversold zone (may rebound and rise, guess the rise), and above 70 is the overbought zone (may rebound and fall, guess the fall).
MACD: The indicator line is above the signal line and positive, indicating high momentum; Conversely, it tends to be empty.
Bollinger Bands: If the price touches the upper limit, it may be overbought (guessing a decline), and if it touches the lower limit, it may be oversold (guessing a rise).
K-line shape:
Learn some key bullish (such as hammerhead line, bullish swallow) and bearish (such as hanging neck line, bearish swallow) candlestick patterns, which are more reliable when they appear at critical positions.
2. Fundamental analysis (providing direction)
Although the fluctuation cycle is short, major fundamental events can trigger severe market volatility.
Pay attention to economic data, such as non farm employment data CPI、GDP、 Interest rate resolutions, etc. These data will greatly affect the strength of the currency.
For example, if the non farm payroll data in the United States is much higher than expected, it usually benefits the US dollar. At this time, the winning rate of guessing a "decline" in trading EUR/USD will increase.
Pay attention to news events such as speeches by central bank governors, geopolitical conflicts, and unexpected events.
Tip: Avoid trading before major data is released, as direction is extremely difficult to determine. It is best to wait for the data to be released and the market to choose its direction before taking advantage of the situation.
3. Market sentiment analysis
Market sentiment is a reflection of collective psychology.
Fear and Greed Index: You can refer to some market sentiment indicators.
Following the trend and going against it: When the market is extremely bullish, be alert to the possibility of reversal (guessing a decline); When the market is extremely bearish, the opposite is true (guessing a rise). But this requires strong judgment and is not suitable for beginners.
2、 Practical trading techniques and strategies
Choose currency pairs with high liquidity:
Main trades include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, etc. These currency pairs have small spreads and relatively standardized trends, making them less susceptible to abnormal manipulation.
Choose an active trading time:
The overlapping trading period has the strongest liquidity, the greatest volatility, and the most opportunities. For example:
London time slot and New York time slot overlap: 8pm to 12pm Beijing time.
Overlap between Asian and London time slots: 3pm to 5pm Beijing time.
Selection of time period:
M1/M5: Ultra short term, very stimulating, but with a lot of noise, easy to make mistakes.
M15/M30: Suitable for most traders, it can capture short-term fluctuations and filter out some false signals.
Suggestion: Start analyzing from the M15 chart and switch to the M5 chart to find entry points.
Simple strategy example:
Trend following strategy: On the 15 minute chart, the price is above the 200 cycle moving average and the RSI is above 50. When waiting for the price to retrace to near the moving average or a small support level, a bullish candlestick pattern (such as a hammer line) appears, and then enters the market to "guess the rise", with a maturity time set at 15 or 30 minutes.
