IndustryGold technical outlook

After dropping below the lower limit of the ascending regression channel coming from June, Gold found support and returned within this channel. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart, however, failed to push higher after recovering to 50, reflecting buyers’ hesitancy. On the downside, key support area seems to have formed at $2,680-$2,675, where the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the uptrend and the lower limit of the ascending channel meet, ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,640. A daily close below this support could open the door for another leg lower toward $2,600. Looking north, the first resistance could be spotted at $2,720 (20-day SMA). In case XAU/USD flips that level into support, technical buyers could take action. In this scenario, $2,760 (mid-point of the ascending channel) could be seen as the next hurdle before $2,790 (record-high).

FX1802677189

2024-11-09 04:08

IndustryGold investors await Fedspeak, US inflation report

Stock markets in the US will remain open on Veterans Day on Monday but bond markets will be closed, limiting the market volatility at the beginning of next week. On Wednesday, The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October. Investors expect the CPI and the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to rise by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, on a monthly basis. In case the core CPI increases at a softer pace than forecast, the USD could weaken against its rivals with the immediate reaction. On the other hand, an increase of 0.3%, or bigger, in the monthly core CPI could make it difficult for XAU/USD to hold its ground. Meanwhile, market participants will scrutinize comments from Fed policymakers now that the blackout period is over. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in about a 70% chance of another 25 bps rate cut in December. If Fed officials adopt a more cautious tone on further policy easing, citing the potential inflationary effects of Trump policies, US T-bond yields could start pushing higher and weigh on XAU/USD.

FX1802677189

2024-11-09 04:05

IndustryGold suffers large losses on Trump’s victory

Gold started the week in a calm manner and registered small gains on Monday and Tuesday as markets refrained from taking large positions ahead of the week’s key risk events. During the Asian trading hours on Wednesday, the US Dollar (USD) started to gather strength against its rivals and caused XAU/USD to turn south. News of Donald Trump retaking battleground states Georgia and North Carolina triggered a rally in the US Treasury bond yields, further weighing on the Gold price. In the early European session, news outlets started calling Pennsylvania for Trump, a swing state that was widely seen as Kamala Harris’ only chance to turn the election around, all but officially confirming the winner. Republicans also gained the majority in the Senate and looked on track to take control of the House, fuelling another leg higher in US yields and the USD. Gold broke below $2,700 and fell 3% on a daily basis to register its largest one-day loss of the year.

FX1802677189

2024-11-09 04:01

IndustryAUD/NZD, NZD/USD surge over 1%

GBP/USD is currently within its sixth week lower, a bearish sequence not seen for just over a year. This week’s range overlaps last to show a lack of progress for bears, and if it were to close the week around current levels it would be deemed a long-legged doji. This week’s low has also respected the 200-week SMA as support, which is a decent level of potential support. Asset managers flipped to net-short exposure two weeks ago and large speculators reduced net-long exposure to a 6-week low. Yet the moves have mostly been down to a closure of longs as opposed to a surge in short bets against the pound. I’m therefore inclined to bet that longs could pick up over the near-term and support the pound, unless they surprise with a dovish cut today.

CSK

2024-11-09 03:01

IndustryGBP/JPY lacking bullish momentum

The technical picture looks less dire for GBP/JPY in the near-term with the price remaining in an uptrend first established in late September. However, having been unable to clear resistance overhead at 199.50 over recent weeks, downside risks may be building. It’s yet to be completed, but the three-candle pattern resembles an evening star formation. RSI (14) is trending lower while MACD has rolled over, providing bearish signals on price momentum. If the price were to break the uptrend, 196 is a level that has provided both support and resistance at points this year. Below, the 200 and 50-day moving averages are other potential targets, as is 189.59 and 188.00. Alternatively, if we were to see the price break convincingly above 199.50, 201.95 and 203.85 are two levels of note.

CSK

2024-11-09 02:51

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